Coldest US November Outbreak Since 1980s?

Written by on November 8, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

All eyes on this weekend into next week as a major shot of early season arctic air is set to drop into the Midwest and East. While the arctic blast looks near certain, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding snowfall and where the snow will fall.

It’s difficult to say right now where a low will form. My guess is it’s likely to form over eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas at the base of the trough and on the tail of the arctic front and push northeast towards Chesapeake Bay.

Both models remain confident enough at bringing a decent amount of snow to the Appalachians but east and south is tough to say.

Here’s the initial timing of the arctic front.

Source: AccuWeather
Source: AccuWeather

Here’s the latest snow chart off the GFS through 120 hours.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Note the model tries to have it snow as far south as the Carolinas.

Think that’s impressive, try the 144 hour ECMWF which prints out SNOW all the way to central Georgia, hum.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

In terms of the strength of cold coming, this looks to mean business. Given the fast expansion of Canada snowcover, the fact this air has Siberian injection and surface pressures are set to rocket beyond 1044mb, there’s a lot of indication that records will widely fall from the Plains to East perhaps Gulf Coast.

Given the above, I expect to see an expanding area of 20-30 below normal from Monday through Thursday next week.

Here’s the GFS surface charts which show the big arctic high diving south and ultimately engulfing the entire Eastern US.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

120 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

To get an idea of just how cold the air is coming out of Canada, take a look at both ECMWF and GFS 5,000ft level temps by 96 and 102 hours.

GFS

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

ECM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The cold that’s coming down next week could very well be the coldest for November since the late 1980s. I believe there was a significant late November outbreak back in 1989.

Shall write tomorrow (hopefully a video too), on just how cold it might get next week.

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