By far the coldest air mass of the season has settled over Iceland in the wake of the low which blasted the UK this past weekend. Beneath clear skies, light winds and over snow covered ground, temperatures bottomed out at -20C at two central Highland locales and tonight, temperatures are once again sinking. Upptyppingar is already shivering at -16.3C after the ‘high’ only crept up to -14.2C this afternoon.

Here was one of the many scenes of the frozen Icelandic wilderness this afternoon.

Tonight is likely to dip back towards -20C before another storm system approaches from the southwest. Gale warnings have been prompted across much of the southern half of island tomorrow

Check out the current temperatures as of 5pm this evening across the central Highlands of Iceland.

This morning not only saw by far the coldest temperatures of autumn so far over the Eastern United States and Iceland but here in the UK and Ireland as well. I captured the photo of my first hard frost this morning.

The cooler air mass which followed in the wakes of the weekend storm also saw skies clear and winds fall light thanks to surface high pressure and this supported the strongest widespread radiational cooling yet. Check out these lows from this morning.

Katesbridge, Co Down managed to sink to a respectable but by no means unprecedented -6C.

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Hope you enjoyed today’s sun and pleasant conditions across a broad area as this was a mere breather from what conditions to be a very active weather pattern. The next front arrives tonight and is already crossing Ireland. Ahead of the main band, another cold night is ahead with likely colder night temperatures compared to last night down the eastern flank of the UK. The Grampian Glens could well see -5 to -7C tonight but widely 0 to -3C even in inland western parts before the cloud arrives after midnight.

Tomorrow will see the rain and wind spread east but that rain becomes less organised as it enters the eastern side of the UK. Following the weakening front will be a raft of sunshine and heavy, blustery showers. I will feel chilly in that brisk west wind with highs only in the 6-9C territory in the North but nearer 10-14C in the Southwest.

Here’s the ECMWF surface/precip chart for tomorrow.

After this front pushes through, pretty much all of Ireland and the UK can expect a persistent west wind with sunshine and showers over the next several days but embedded within that showery regime will be pulses or waves of heavier, more organised areas of rain.

You can see from the chart by Thursday that the showers and brisk breeze keeps up for most but a plume of heavier, more persistent rain runs the boundary which will influence southern Ireland and the UK as well as the Low Countries. The blustery showers, like over most of the UK, shall also plague Denmark, Norway and Sweden but here, precip should fall as snow where the air is colder.

Towards the weekend and a larger low pressure system arrives bringing a more organised area of wind and rain for a time. This relatively weak system, compared to the previous two, will force colder air down and therefore we could see snow levels drop some but the most noticeable aspect will be a drop in temperature with a colder wind and rain. However, look out once that system pushes east towards the later of the weekend into next week. A cold high will support more cold, frosty winds with a struggle of recovery the following days.

There’s that high pressure in the wake of the low. This could promise colder nights than what we had last night and tonight. Notice the next front is never far away. That front sure looks wet and shall present another batch of flooding rain accompanied by gales.

Throughout the next 5-7 days, it won’t be particularly warm as you’ll have already gathered and keep in mind that precipitation above perhaps 3,000ft will likely fall as sleet or snow, so don’t be surprised to hear of snow piling up nicely over the mid and upper reaches of the Scottish Hills.

Here’s the GFS snow chart through Sunday.

Looking ahead, the NAO has flat lined while the AO continues to hold firmly positive. That clearly signals the continuation of this strong Atlantic influence of the UK-Europe pattern. Of course a firmly positive AO by some will be looked upon as a bad thing as as an actual fact, it’s a good thing for all you winter weather lovers. This bundling of the coldest air over the source region will keep the reservoir on charge. All evidence points to the return of a negative AO and when that occurs, we must look out as the arctic will open the door and deliver high octane arctic cold.

The timing of that major pattern change very much remain un known and it can be easy to forecast that change too quickly. In my opinion, the longer it stays the same, the more likely the cold may be worse when it comes down. Of course there’s NO guarantees that this arctic blast will come down and impact the UK but we will certainly continue monitoring the situation carefully.

I also wish to add that these colder nights and the ones that could come late this upcoming weekend, is NOT a sign of colder times. Just a sure sign that we’re edging closer to that time of year again. We’re unlikely to enter a new pattern which signals colder, for at least another 3 weeks. I suspect we’ll get into the 2nd week of December before any major cold threatens.

If you haven’t already, be sure to read my Official Europe Winter Forecast 2013-14 as well as yesterday post.

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