The overall fall pattern is unfolding as predicted back in August with a largely warm September and start to October with cold end. Also, as expected, the pattern is shifting and November overall is looking milder and wetter for the East while the trough repositions back over the West as the indexes flip.
Based on all current and projected conditions in the ENSO index, NAO/PNA/AO indexes, Sea surface temperatures, low solar cycle and various long range modelling.. I believe the upcoming US winter should be colder than normal and considerably colder than it was during December and January last year.
Here is the current from the ECMWF looking 10 days out from now and you can see a rather zonal or west-east flow with cold to the north and warmth to the south. This is the setup I expect to see towards mid-month but before we get there, storminess will connect with cold to bring a series of cold, snowy shots into the West while ridging and warmer weather dominates the East.
The 8-14 days Climate Prediction Center forecast shows a cold West, warm East.