Storms And More Storms To Come For Europe, Atlantic Tripole Forming!

Written by on October 29, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

Northwest Europe was slammed by one of the strongest windstorms in recent times with record gusts experienced in Denmark while media reports stated that the Netherlands had not seen a storm like it since 1976. While 99 mph gusts hit southern Britain along with flooding rains, we also saw other aspects to this storm.

Six floors of scaffold collapsed in Denmark on Monday, October 28th as a result of Cyclone ‘Christian’. A new national wind speed record was set at Kegnaes on the Baltic Sea with a gust of 193 kmh (120 mph) observed. Via Christopher C Burt's Blog

Six floors of scaffold collapsed in Denmark on Monday, October 28th as a result of Cyclone ‘Christian’. A new national wind speed record was set at Kegnaes on the Baltic Sea with a gust of 193 kmh (120 mph) observed. Via Christopher C Burt’s Blog

After slamming Britain, the low continued to deepen as it crossed the North Sea, eventually striking mainland Europe with 90+ mph winds. On the backside of the low, a cold NNW flow pulled very cold air off Greenland and with low pressure near to Iceland, heavy snow broke out yesterday into today.

Here was the scene this afternoon over the West Fjord region of Iceland. Note the temperature.


While the European wind machine blew itself out over far northern Finland today, the system had one last sting in it’s tail with the trailing front sweeping over warmer than normal Mediterranean waters. Potent upper energy and surface convergence triggered the eruption of big thunderstorms directly over the Balearics today. Flash flooding was caused.

Check out Palma De Mallorca today!

Palma De Mallorca flooding (Courtesy @mboggy)

Palma De Mallorca flooding (Courtesy @mboggy)

Take a close look at the below visible satellite imagery captured late this afternoon and note the ball of deep convection directly over the Balearics.


It turned much cooler across the UK into France and the Low Countries in the wake of the storm and with colder air in place and high pressure settled overhead, tonight will turn cold across Britain with frost outwith major towns and cities as winds fall light.

When looking at the above satellite image, cast your eyes west of Ireland and it’s hard to not notice the large swirl. That’s the next system winding up. This will make impact with Ireland and the UK by tomorrow with the front sweeping through.

The pattern is loaded as stated and looks to continue that way for another good couple of weeks.

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Thought I would show you the current water temperature anomalies below as there are a few interesting things showing up.

Note the pool of very cold water extending out into the Atlantic from North America. This cold is likely caused by strong westerlies blowing off NA as well as churning from low pressure systems themselves. This cold within an overall warm North Atlantic is likely enhancing the strength of the trans-Atlantic jet as well as the production of deeper Atlantic lows. Like in the atmosphere, when the pattern is right and it certainly is currently with strong positive AO/NAO, this contrast enhances jet winds and the deepening of lows. We saw that with a deep N Atlantic low several days ago and are seeing it now with another.

Also notice the slightly darker yellow/orange just south of Greenland and Iceland indicating warmer water. This was likely created when the NAO was negative and high pressure sat overhead with no cold air blowing off Greenland. The tongue of very cold water will likely extend further east over the next few weeks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see waters cooling around the UK with the parade of passing lows and associated fronts. This would help with a further W and N position of the blocking high once the pattern flips back around again. A long stretch of cold water with warmth north and south of course sets up the classic tripole which supports Greenland/N Atlantic blocking.


Here comes the next soaking, windy front into Ireland and the UK. Check out the depth of the associated low.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The late week period looks messy with the low currently south of Greenland passing just north of Scotland in a weakening state Friday. Could bring severe gales to N Scotland, very windy conditions further south.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Another low appears to push towards the UK from the SW again by Sunday and while another low strikes, look west to the corridor of rain taking aim at the UK.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

I could go on and on showing you these maps for the next 10, perhaps 20 to 25 days and they’ll all look the same. Moral is this pattern means business and there’s lots more rain and flooding issues to come with perhaps another couple of decent wind events. Lots of available energy ready to be whipped up by the atmosphere. November is likely to resemble November 2009 with flooding issues as well as noticeably MILD conditions.

As you can see from the below ensemble, the AO is firmly positive and that means the arctic reservoir is on charge right now. Just wait till we get the next -AO and we may just find with the next -NAO that cold wants to get much closer to the UK. The feedback before is different now and will be different again come later in November and into winter.


The Official Europe winter forecast will be released Thursday!!

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  1. Michael says:

    Nice overview! As always interesting. Looking forward to the official winter forecast for Europe. I hope for a cold one. 😉

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