Alberta Goes From Warmth To Snow In 1 DAY, Warmer Times Ahead For Lower 48!

Written by on October 27, 2013 in North and South America, United States of America with 0 Comments

It was a balmy 68 degrees or 20C yesterday in Calgary, Alberta and in previous days, highs reached in the low 20s or low to mid-70s and this morning it started snowing and continues to snow through today. Gone is the major, even record breaking warmth which allowed Western Canada to enjoy some extended summer warmth but since it’s late October, that was never going to last.

The reason for the sudden change is thanks to a big arctic high pressure system that’s starting to drop south from the Yukon and NWT. The frontal separating bitterly cold air from warm dropped south over Alberta last night into this morning and along it, snow has broken out and it’s caused a very sharp temperature drop too.

Here was the scene in Evergreen, a Calgary suburb this morning.

image

Here’s expected snow totals according to The Weather Network through the rest of today and tonight.

Courtesy The Weather Network

Courtesy The Weather Network

A storm system is forming to the south as the arctic air drops into the Lower 48 and this will help bring into the Northern US Rockies. Significant snow will fall across a large swath of Montana starting tonight and lasting through much of tomorrow. Snow is also expected across parts of Idaho, Wyoming and even the Northern Plains. The cold that follows is also significant and could present the first 0F low for the US since late winter and spring.

Check out the GFS 48 hour snow chart.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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After most snowfall clears out later tomorrow, skies clear and winds fall light setting the stage for a frigid start to Tuesday morning. Check out the GFS forecasted lows for Tuesday morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Warming Trend Beyond This Week?

The cold will bleed south over the West as well as spread east across the Plains but it looks to stay across the Northern Tier.

Here’s the 6-10 day off the CPC.

610temp_new

Day 8-14

814temp_new

Both AO and NAO is back positive while the PNA is returning to negative thus supporting the above adjustment in the NA temperature profile. While the front running 10 days has more of a west trough-east ridge regime, in the longer range I suspect a more widespread warm regime across the continental US, likely with a zonal or west-east flow with the cold bottled up well into Canada given the strong positive AO. A more active Pacific storm pattern looks likely during November with Pacific flow flooding the whole country.

Here’s the indexes.

ao_fcst

nao_fcst

pna_fcst

Check out the CFSv2 weeklies.

6-14 day

wk1_wk2_20131026_NAsfcT

Week 3-4

wk3_wk4_20131026_NAsfcT

CFSv2 continues to show the warm November but this should be followed by a cold December with the flip in indexes again.

usT2mMonInd1

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