Soaking And Increasingly Stormy Pattern For Western Europe

Written by on October 24, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments

As expected the Western Europe pattern is becoming more and more active as the upper height field shifts and the arctic oscillation flips strongly positive, so too will the NAO over the next week to 10 days therefore supporting the continuation of the zonal and very active Atlantic pattern across Europe. The warmer than normal waters across the North Atlantic and surrounding the UK and Ireland once fuelled ridging and is now fuelling low pressure and rainfall as the overall atmosphere cools.

We’ve already seen a lot of rain across many areas over the past 5 days or so with countless fields flooded once again and most if not all UK sites are now well above normal for monthly rainfall, following recent trends in autumn rainfall thanks to the warm AMO.

Tonight will see the next rain band sweep north, northeast followed by another Saturday before a rather interesting low develops to the southwest and deepens rapidly on approach to southern Ireland and the UK Sunday evening. That low in particular must be closely watched as this could be the first anticipated ‘storm’ and is likely to be followed by a few more before we transition into a colder pattern 4-6 weeks from now.

The jet stream is flowing fast and with high pressure to the east over Europe, so the atmosphere is primed SW of the UK for low pressure formation. The kink that develops will harness ‘bundling’ and with nowhere for all the piling up of air to go, so the low deepens and rapidly.

Speaking of the fast flowing jet stream crossing the Atlantic. check out the contrast in air masses close together at 42 hours harnessing a 965mb low south of Greenland which may deepen sub-960 as it taps bitterly cold air building over Greenland while pulling warm air up from the sub-tropics.


As a result of those two contrasting air masses coming together, check out the GFS jet stream winds at 42 hours.


Those winds within the speed max are said to clock 340kph or around 211 mph.

Here comes system No.1 tonight into tomorrow.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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System No.2 arrives during the day Saturday after a dry start.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Then here comes system No.3 and the potential trouble maker.

This is the latest surface/precip chart off the GFS which has a 988mb centre sweeping onshore along the South Coast of England by 96 hours or early Monday but effects will be felt as early as the afternoon on Sunday with heavy driving rain and gale to storm-force S then NW winds gusting to 75 mph.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the 90 hr 10 metre wind speeds off the GFS and note a core of strongest winds just off the South Coast on the south side of the low.

Courtesy/Owned by MeteoGroup

Courtesy/Owned by MeteoGroup

The ECMWF is further west and deeper bringing bigger impact to southern Ireland as well as southern England and Wales. With a 976mb or lower centre tracking up the Celtic Sea, wind impacts may be greater for the South Coast with damaging gusts to 80+ mph not forgetting coastal flooding with heavy seas and pounding waves along with 2+ inches of rain which could present inland flooding.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Tuesday the deep low, still 976mb slams into southern Norway and Denmark bringing heavy rain and strong gale-force winds. The UK will be treated to a ‘refreshing’ north wind!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

850mb temps show the cold air which follows in the wake of the low.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here comes the next low later next week. Yes it’s a busy pattern just like we saw in 2009.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s a closer look at next Thursday’s wind and rain. That rain could be particularly heavy and falling on already soaked ground, well you know the script. Of course this far out it’s fantasy BUT the pattern certainly supports this.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As stated time and time again. Where the heaviest rain falls during autumn, that tends to be where the cold goes during the winter and with a lot of anticipated blocking, supported by the models, look out come December. We may well go from flood to freeze quickly just like in 2009.

I’m noticing a more persistent cold look for the UK and Europe off the CFS,

Take a look at this!

Here comes the warm, wet November!


Then we get into the fun and games in December.


If you think December looks exciting, here’s January!


and February…


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2 Reader Comments

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  1. Michael says:

    The Atlantic is pumped to say the least, that Jet-stream is on a mission. Could we end up with a damp squid of a winter especially given the media hype? Jan-Mar will be interesting to say the least.

  2. Julie Grey says:

    Im not sure Mark but I think I remember Autumn weather like this the first year we had a very cold winter,would I be right in saying so or is it a coincidence?We were washed out of it here although I do think it may have been September a few weeks earlier than this but not by a whole lot either!

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