The Atlantic is busy these days with multiple swirls of low pressure spinning off Europe and these will continue to spread one front after the other across the UK, France and Spain in coming days along with strong, gusty winds. Further north and east and cold air is bleeding south over Scandinavia.
While one front lifts out of Ireland and the UK, another swings in from the Atlantic tomorrow and Saturday and more is poised to sweep in early next week too. We’re in much more Atlantic driven pattern right now with plenty of rain but also mild air while up in Northern Europe, well there’s somewhat of a fight going on. A battle between Atlantic and Arctic.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
Low pressure that was over England yesterday is now crossing the Baltic Sea and that low will not only pull colder air south from the arctic but it’s set to bring the first significant snow to southern parts of Scandinavia into the Baltic States.
We’ve already seen snow across parts of Norway, Sweden and Finland over the past 24 hours and should see plenty more over the next few days.
Check out this beautiful photo of snow falling in Sweden this morning. Courtesy of @tamayza
Photo courtesy of @tamayza
Here’s the latest GFS snow chart through Sunday. Note pretty much all of Scandinavia sees snow with decent accumulation in southern areas including Stockholm and Helsinki.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Here’s the GFS surface/precip/pressure chart for tomorrow and note the two significant lows on the map. The main low and dominant feature is the low spinning off Iberia. That system is feeding one front after another into Iberia, France and Ireland-UK, the other low is spinning over southern Finland. That system is drawing arctic air south and bringing spells of heavy snow across southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic nations.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
By Saturday more wind and rain spreads across the UK while the Finland low is off the map.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
By Monday another pulse of heavy precip pushes into Iberia as well as the UK while energy spreads across the Baltic Sea. That feature connects with cold air in place over southern Norway, Sweden and Finland and should coincide with the snow chart above, which suggests a decent few inches of snow in Oslo, Stockholm and eventually Helsinki.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
By Tuesday, warmer air gains more ground over Scandinavia with more rain than snow for southern Scandi, if the GFS holds true. Yet more rain for the UK but notice the heavier stuff sweeping into Portugal and Spain.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Looking to late next week and the weekend, more systems spread more rain and wind across western Europe but remember what I stated in recent posts. Warm and wet can bode well for colder times later down the road. I would be more concerned if the trend was with +NAO/AO’s but there isn’t!
Note the GFS has some deeper low close to the UK later next weekend, hum, some stormier times perhaps?
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
GFS ensembles show NAO/AO heading back towards positive in roughly 10 days from now as I expected.
[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]
That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!
To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
Sign in to read the full forecast…
Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access
Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]
Very zonal pattern at the moment. Still expecting November to be mild and wet, Mark? It certainly seems so with those SST’s.