Up until now it’s been cold from the western Plains/Rockies west while very warm in the East but we have a major flip in the pattern for the second half of October.
Despite the early start to winter for some and one western system after the other with two snowstorms within 10 days for the Dakotas, snow cover across North America remains subpar and below that of this time last year. Check out the comparison charts below for Oct 14 last year (left) to this year (right),
As for departures from normal. Check out these for the first 13 days of the month. Yes it has been VERY mild indeed.
Temperature Departures From Normal Oct. 1 to 13, 2013
Location | Departure (Degrees F) |
---|---|
Minneapolis | +6.0 |
Chicago | +7.1 |
Detroit | +6.8 |
St. Louis | +6.3 |
Omaha, Neb. | +4.6 |
Cincinnati | +5.8 |
Boston | +4.6 |
New York | +6.6 |
Washington, D.C. | +6.4 |
Raleigh, N.C. | +2.7 |
Atlanta | +3.9 |
As mentioned many times already, we’ve already seen a firmly -NAO/AO but also a negative PNA which kept the trough in the west, ridge in the east but that’s about to change with the first shot of cold late this week followed by a reinforcing, strongly shot late weekend into early and mid next week which should get to the East Coast. The initial shot gets largely lifted out before ever reaching the East Coast.
Looking ahead, well we’ve good the first shot of cold now diving into the central part of the country as you can see from the below ECMWF 500 & 850mb temp charts,
850 temps
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As you can see the first trough and cold pool lifts out.
However by 144 you can see the next trough dropping south on the heels of trough No 1 and this one is much stronger and will reach the East Coast as well as dive into the Southeast.
By 168, a major cold shot dives into the Midwest and this should spread east as the PNA enters + with the big west coast ridge.
Check out the 850 temps.
168 hrs
204 hrs
As for snow, while the ECMWF has little, take a look at the GFS for the next 7 days. If correct, this should significantly increase NA snow cover.
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