Could Summer Hangover Be Dictating October Pattern Over Europe? What Does This Mean?

Written by on October 15, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I was doing a little research this afternoon and trying to see if there was any connection between October and November temperatures/precipitation with the following winter over western Europe. I looked at the October temperatures and precipitation for a selection of UK cities but there was no clear indication that I could find which suggested a certain type of winter followed. In other words there was some cold and some warm Octobers which both were followed by a cold winter or a warm winter. However, I always recall Joe Bastardi stating that where it likes to rain in autumn, that’s where the cold likes to head for during the winter months. He also made mention in recent week’s that where your ridge is positioned during October, that’s where your winter trough goes and sure enough we do have another week or so of ridging and no real sign of coming cold.

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This to me is an interesting October with the second spell of firm -NAO as well as PNA but the trough wants to stay east of the UK. Ridging between Spain and the UK while a low west of Ireland pumps mild air across the UK, there is cold bleeding out of Scandinavia but it’s being deflected east. This is likely due to warm waters caused by the warm summer.

pna_sprd2

It’s going to be interesting to see whether the PNA can have influence on the UK ridge during the second half of this month. I’m watching closely the North America pattern and we finally have cold driving due south down the Plains late this week into the weekend and by next week that cold should shift east in response to the +PNA with a strong ridge building up the west coast. With the -AO, arctic origin air will enter5 the Lower 48 for the first time this autumn. The question that remains, does this teleconnect over western Europe, perhaps helping pull the trough that’s wanting to always go east, push more west.

Despite what’s going on over Europe with mild holding on, we must look at how things are shaping up elsewhere across the hemisphere. Let’s face it, it’s important that snow cover continues to expand in key areas which support maximum intensity of cold into the mid-latitudes during the heart of winter. In other words, a lack of snow cover now could mean less intensity cold later down the road, when the pattern here may have flipped to a trough.

Check out the snow cover comparison (below) between Oct 14 this year (right) with Oct 14th last year (left) across Northern Asia. We’re way ahead of last year and that may well be thanks to greater arctic sea ice.

RecentSnowCoverEuropeAsia

Warm SST’s due to a hot summer as well as the warm AMO is helping produce all the current blocking and that should persist through the upcoming winter as you know.

In terms of the prospects of a cold winter here, I stand by the fact that we are now seeing a trend to -NAO/AO which is a good sign for later down the road. I also believe it’s good to see a warmer October, not colder and there is a good chance that at some point probably in December as waters finally cool enough around the UK, we will see the trough shift west in the means. Where it’s warm now, that’s where your cold is heading and where cold now, that’s where the ridge should setup during winter. Where’s that trough hanging right now? Scandinavia.

Another signal to a cold winter is a warmer, wetter November. While we’re well into negative territory with the NAO/AO right now, I believe we will see a flip to positive for a good 2 weeks during November and we’ll see a LOT of rain. Keep in mind the warmer than normal SST’s.

anomnight_10_14_2013

Those warm waters are likely feeding back to stronger than normal heights now but may feedback to wetter than normal conditions next month.

So, the mild continues and here’s the proof.

This Saturday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Next Tuesday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

But we should closely watch next week in particular as the US sees the trough slide east, this MAY try to force the trough further west over Europe, but the warm SST’s may override any teleconnection. Only time will tell.

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