Next Storm Looks Colder With Snow Again For Black Hills, Game Changer?

Written by on October 12, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It’s all eyes on the next system which sweeps into the West this weekend in what has been just one system after the next for the West. The -PNA has kept the trough in the west with more ridging further east and next week is not any different but in a sense it is. In fact it may well be a game changer. What is different next week from this week is that the next storm will be colder and thus will present a bigger snow to the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming as well as back into the Black Hills of SD.

Another difference will be the cold which comes south on the backside once that low heads up into the Great Lakes next weekend. The AO is currently positive and so this week’s storm not only had less cold but there was a jet split with the northern branch holding any real cold up north. This second system comes when the AO is negative and releasing cold south. This next storm will tap that and pull it into the Lower 48 both with the low itself and on the backside.

The ECMWF winds up a pretty decent storm once again and this could drop another decent snow.

Here’s the ECMWF surface for next week.

72 hr

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Tuesday has another deep central Plains low with heavy, flooding rains and possible severe weather in the warm sector while heavy snow and wind is causing issues on the backside over the Rockies and western High Plains including the Black Hills.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As mentioned, this storm looks colder and is colder with much colder mid and upper levels compared to the last as you can see below.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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By Friday the rain bearing front is pushing through the I-95, note the blue hatched line dropping south on the backside. That indicates the freezing line and much colder air.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

In terms of snow, the model shows a bigger amounts of snow and greater coverage. Also notice it brings snow back into areas hard hit by last week’s blizzard. As stated throughout the week. This one looks colder than the one now spinning up into Manitoba.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb/850mb temps through next week.

Mon 14


Wed 16


Fri 18


Sun 20


Notice an upper low hangs back over the west which appears to stop the shot of arctic air which tries to come down on the rear of next week’s storm. It will be interesting to see whether the model holds to this feature. The PNA is today’s ensemble appears to want to stay more negative which means the trough wants to hold back further west, stopping heights from really dropping in the East.

With the deep -NAO and AO I suspect the period between the 20-30th should see some much colder air push into the Eastern US.

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