Hope your enjoying this warmth if you like this sort of thing in October because the big change in our pattern here in the UK looms.

For the past few days, a front has been gradually working south from Iceland and will cross the UK tonight and tomorrow and it’s as this front passes, so winds turn around from a SW to NW direction. Interestingly we have two distinctly different air masses right now between Spain and Iceland. Both are unusually warm and cold for the time of year. In recent days we’ve been under the influence of Spain but by Thursday we’ll be under the under the influence of Iceland and it’s all thanks to a passing of a rather innocuous low that brings about the seemingly dramatic change. A change to reality really. It will feel worse simply because it’s been so darn mild.

Check out the highs from yesterday. Note how warm it is across Spain, France and the UK. Notice the high of 20C around Inverness and the 19C pretty much on the north coast. Quite amazing for October 7.

As for what’s coming, the below webcam shot captured early this afternoon looks at the Summit Camp research station in the Greenland interior. Here the temperature hit -46C this morning. Even at 1pm it was still -42C.

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The air has be growing considerably colder over Greenland in the last couple of days as a cold high builds. The trough is now slidding off Greenland and crossing Iceland and will get far enough south that once a low gets south and east of Iceland, so this very cold will get tapped and forced south into the UK.

Here was the scene this afternoon over Iceland West Fjord region which looked and felt rather wintry. Tonight could be the coldest of the autumn yet as clear skies and light winds allow interior temperatures to drop towards -15C in spots

Despite a colder than normal Greenland and Iceland and the fact this air will dive south into the UK and Ireland, keep in mind that waters are warmer than normal the closer you get to Scotland and surrounding the UK. These warm waters will take the sting out of this air mass and so it’s not like the next ice age is coming but more a taste of reality.

Here’s the GFS today. Note the wet weather captured by the hills, leaving a brighter/sunnier east. Temperatures this afternoon reaches at least 20C in NE Scotland and 21C to the east of the Pennines.

By tomorrow you can see how winds are making that turn more W as the low has passed and the front is to the south

On Wednesday turns are turning more northwest so we loose the warmth and start the cooling process. Rather than 15-19C across Scotland today, look for 9-12C. The colder air remains north of the Midlands, so it’s one more day of warmth in the South.

By Thursday ALL is in the chill and it will feel cold, especially in the northerly wind. Highs? 6-10C in Scotland, N England and much of Northern Ireland, 10-13C from the Midlands to South Coast as well as much of the Republic.

Here’s the 850 mb temperatures.

The GFS has a rather chilly Thursday afternoon on tap. Check out these temps.

The 50F line btw is 10C and it is down as far as Birmingham Thursday early afternoon…

Haven’t seen frost? Many of you including myself should see it come Friday morning if there’s enough clear sky and winds are light enough!

Friday AM temps. Towns and cities should get down to 2 or 3C while rural areas get near or below freezing.

As for the rest of Europe. The next couple of days will be mild, fine and dry across France up through the Low Countries, Denmark and southern Scandinavia while the warming process continues for eastern areas but Thursday will see low pressure near Denmark and so expect a low of unsettled (wet, windy and cool) weather for western mainland Europe. Warmer in the east.

By Friday the low begins to cut off with a banana shaped high draped just north of Scotland extending into Denmark and S Scand. This high will attempt to bring milder air into Scotland and will more likely into Denmark and S Norway while it cold, wet and windy over France extending into the Alps where the first big snows will fall into the weekend.

Here’s Friday’s setup. Note the high extends from Scotland to the Baltic Sea while a lot od unsettled weather underneath.

By 102 hrs or Saturday, high pressure remains to the north while the upper low begins opening up and tries spreading a front and wet weather north over the UK. Heavy rain looks to take aim at Germany and the south of England.

Here’s the GFS projected snowfall through 120 hrs.

Looking ahead, it’s interesting to see the models holding positive heights NORTH of the UK and we’re probably going to see the upper low which cuts off this weekend over France become somewhat of a semi-permanent feature over the next 1-2 weeks if the models hold true with the positive heights further north or northwest. This setup would encourage troughiness down into Scandanavia and sure enough check out the below charts for 168 and 240 hrs.

240 hrs (Thu 17)

Here’s the GFS looking even further out. Note the model is trying to build heights more up towards Greenland. The further NW we get ridge, the greater the chance colder air can reach further west towards Denmark, Low Countries, UK and Ireland

384 hrs (Wed 23)

This is certainly a pattern worth watching closely and will be very interesting to see how this evolves.

I’ve heard from a few great forecasters in the past make mention of the September, October ridge becoming the winter trough later down the road. Not always but has been known to happen. Thought I would leave you with that..

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