Ridging Dominates Europe Next Week As NAO/AO Goes Back Positive

Written by on October 3, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

While we have very much a west-east split in the temperature profile across Europe right now with temperatures still at 17 or 18C over parts of England despite it being dark, temperatures in Moscow are now dropping below freezing for the first time this autumn. In the last 2-4 days, warm, moist southerly winds have driven unseasonably mild air north into the UK while northerly winds further east have driven unusually cold air straight from Siberia but over the next several days, the entire Europe pattern will have changed as the current front sweeping across the UK will usher warmer air right across the continent, all but whipping out the current chill over the east.

The models show both the NAO/AO returning to positive next week and this is clear to be seen in the ECMWF upper chart into next week.

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NAO/AO Heading Back Positive

As mentioned above, both NAO/AO is returning to a positive phase and so this coincides nicely with the more dominant POSITIVE HEIGHT field over Europe next week. SW winds will usher maritime sub-tropical air right across the continent next week, kicking out the current eastern cold.



Greenland Is Cold Tonight And About To Get Colder!

It’s -37C 0r -35F as of early this evening at Summit Camp, central Greenland but in coming nights, temperatures look set to grow much colder and likely to the coldest levels yet as a trough deepens and the air mass which settles in becomes the coldest of the autumn so far. This coincides with the return of a positive NAO which supports ridging over E North America and W Europe while a trough sets up in between, typically over Greenland.

Here’s a look at the current conditions at by -37C.


CFS Continues With ‘Blocky’ Theme This Winter!





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  1. Michael says:

    It’s almost becoming unbearable this pattern of persistent high pressure. Call me weird or whatever, but I am bored to death by this seemingly endless sunshine and lack of precipetation. This year has been incredibly dry here in Denmark and apparently it continues in October, which is normally the second wettest month of the year next after November. My patience is running out soon. When is this pattern ever going to end? I almost can’t believe how it can just go on and on.
    My hope now is for the pattern to change in mid October or perhaps late October. Or at the very least in November. The atmosphere must react to the seasonal change at some point.

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