2nd Rockies Snow Event, First For Dakotas, Minnesota, 80s For Northeast!

Written by on October 1, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

 

We have the second system in less than a week taking aim at the Rockies and eventually Plains this week and this one looks to be quite the storm. The first snows fall over the N Rockies only this time we could see upwards of 6 inches down in valley floors compared to just higher elevations with the last system. This system as it enters the Plains Thursday and Friday will really wind up and could be a significant snow event for the Dakotas, for the time of year.

Below is a series of low and upper level charts off the ECMWF showing you the rest of the week will progress.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb chart for Friday and you can see the trough deepening and upper energy increasing around the base of the trough. By this stage heavy snows are breaking out over the N Rockies with cold air draining out of Canada.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Friday heavy snows are breaking out across southern Idaho, western Montana and particularly Wyoming where lower elevations will get in on several inches. Precip will be falling as rain at this time over the Plains where warm air will be in place with the possibility of severe weather breaking out.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The 114 hour upper chart showing the energy available for the surface storm to feed off of. This kind of upper level energy will really help cool the lower atmosphere and so precip quickly turns to snow over North and South Dakota.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Saturday sees the low ultimately ‘bomb-out’ as once the low gets just east of the Dakotas, you’ve got precip quickly turning to snow and winds sustained at 40, gusting as high as 60 mph with temps dropping through the day.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

 

 

 

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

132 hr Surface

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Now, here’s the 850mb temps and you can see is has enough cold air wrapping around the system for a spell of moderate to heavy snow, driven in by likely 40 to 50 mph sustained winds, gusts perhaps topping 60 mph.

Here’s 90 hours and you can see the cold air starting to wrap around a developing low over the Rockies.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 114 hours or Saturday we have a deepening low nearing 1000mb, perhaps dipping into the 990s and this thing is really tightening, pulling increasingly colder air out of Canada and with those tight isobars you can expect some pretty strong winds roaring out of the north. Combined with heavy snow and it will be pretty wild over the Dakotas with temps in the low/mid 30s, wind chill in the 20s with potential blowing and drifting.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The GFS is bullish on dropping 1-2ft of snow on the Black Hills of South Dakota whereas the ECMWF shows more snow cover across a broader area of the Dakotas with a swath of 2-4, locally 6 inches. We should see snow down to lower levels with this system over the Northern Rockies with such cities as Cheyenne picking up a few inches but it looks like Denver stays south of the heaviest precip and coldest air.

Here’s the latest ECMWF snow chart out 168 hours.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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