As forecast since way back last week, the deepest low to date has formed and continues to deepen in the incubation region made mention of in yesterday’s video. Through Saturday afternoon, winds within the cross-Atlantic jet core screamed at 190-200 mph with a region of divergence out ahead. That area of divergence where upper winds part, forces intense upward motion and an environment conducive for low pressure formation ahead of an area of higher pressure over Scandinavia. This forcing the intense energy into a block out ahead, forces bundling and rapid low pressure formation and that’s what we’re seeing now.

The already deep low will continue intensifying through the rest of today into tonight.

Here’s a lot at the latest satellite imagery which clearly shows the low spinning and winding up to the south of Iceland.

Check out the ECMWF pressure and 850mb temperature chart from yesterday afternoon (below) and notice the large contrast between pressure and temperature. This mergence of such large contrast is the reason for such an intense jet stream. Note the separation of isobars over the UK, this is the area of convergence and like spreading your arms out over the surface of bath water, it draws water from below to the surface. Same idea in the atmosphere and this is a perfect environment for low pressure formation and rapid deepening!

With the frontal passage crossing the UK, winds have been clocked at 100 mph on top of Cairngorm Summit, 96 mph at Aonach Mòr, 60 mph at Shap and widely 30-40 mph.

Here’s a look at the GFS jet stream chart from yesterday afternoon and you can see winds marked in darker reds clocking 320kph or 200 mph.

 

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The low will continue tracking ESE over the next 18 hours and as it does so, will continue deepening and tightening as it crosses just north of Scotland en-route to the North Sea. Winds picked up as the initial front approached and passed, then they drop but will increase as the low pressure centre approaches and by later today, expect severe gale-force winds over far northern Scotland, with gales widely across the rest of Scotland, the north coast of Northern Ireland and northern England.

Here’s the GFS surface chart looking out to 30 hrs or tomorrow.

30 hrs

42 hrs

10 metre wind speeds 24 hrs from now.

As forecasted through all of last week, Iceland has snow once again and actually on the anniversary of last year’s major blizzard which was deemed unprecedented, killing many sheep, cutting power to thousands as well as cutting many northern communities off.

Check out this livecam shot from Iceland#s West Fjord region this morning where the temperature is a bitter -0C with gale-force winds making it feel as well as look distinctly January-like.

The low will eventually dive into the North Sea, weakening as it does so but it’s effects will continue to impact the UK through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. Northwest winds will keep things feeling cold with the possibility of snow over the higher mountains of Scotland.

Night’s could turn rather cold with any clearing skies and lighter winds. Don’t be surprised to see the first frost in some areas, especially in the North.

Stormier Pattern Next 2-3 Weeks, Bigger Storm Day 8-10?

Looking ahead at next week and it shall remain very unsettled with a predominantly cold NW flow to start the week but by mid to late week the upper flow should veer west, then southwest ahead of more stormy weather.

There should be on-off rain through0ut the next 7 days but it appears the weather really goes down hill once again next weekend as we have a complex situation developing with a big storm winding up over the North Atlantic due south of Greenland and as this system pushes east, the remnant low of Humberto looks to track NNE, eventually getting caught by the strong west-east jet stream. The models are uncertain in how Humberto and the big North Atlantic depression interacts but if this connects and all properties and the overall environment are just right, we could have a considerably deeper low spinning close to the current storm’s position sometime late next weekend into the following week.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface and precipitation charts for next week.

Here’s the chart by tomorrow morning and Iceland continues to get hammered by bitter northerly winds, snow and heavy low level rain. Wind chills will be significant, especially in the Highland and exposed North.

Here’s the latest ECMWF snow chart.

Very messy picture even by Tuesday with pulses of heavy rain spreading into the far north of Scotland, cold northwest winds and frequent heavy, blustery showers elsewhere. Feeling cold with possible snow on the hills.

By Wednesday, the low pressure centre remains positioned, albeit stretched out between Scotland and Norway but the worst of the weather (wind and rain) is impacting Denmark and the Low Countries, possibly southern Britain. Further north, we could see night frosts if skies are clear and winds relatively light out of the north. The mid and upper levels are very cold with the source region being the arctic.

It’s a showery, blustery day across Ireland, the UK and western Europe next Saturday.

By next Sunday, the remnant low of Humberto can be seen lifting north over the Atlantic while a significant system spins just south of Greenland. These two are expected to meet.

By early next Monday, Humberto’s remnants are being absorbed by the much larger North Atlantic storm. This could have little or no influence or with it’s tropical properties, may fuel a much deeper storm. Either way this will bring more heavy rain and gales with hurricane-force gusts to the UK.

By later next Monday there appears to be TWO centres possibly spinning around a larger circulation but the question has to be asked, can this vast area of energy bundle into one DEEPER storm centre. If so, we could be talking pressure into the 955mb range and could be one of the stronger Atlantic depressions outwith the tropics for September.

Here’s the latest ECMWF 500mb/850mb charts showing the continued ACTIVE storminess with little true break through next week before the next trouble maker arrives day 8-10.

Tue 17

Sun 22

Mon 23

Tue 24

The NAO/AO ensembles continue showing NEGATIVE late in the month which fits my overall idea of colder times ahead.

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]

Tags: Autumn storm, Iceland snow, iceland storm, Scotland storm