Where Are The Hurricanes?

Written by on August 31, 2013 in Tropical with 0 Comments

This will go down as one of the quietest tropical seasons in many years or at least the period from June 1 through at least September 1 and while there is no significant likelihood of development over the next several days, there is still a long way to go before this season is done. We haven’t yet reached the historic peak of the season (September 15) and so it’s important to not become complacent or right this year off.

It sure has been quiet. No hurricane yet and that’s us entering September. Since 1960, only 5 years has gone through this length of time without seeing a hurricane and 2013 looks to become 6.

The below graphic shows the stats.

Source: AccuWeather

Source: AccuWeather

The two current water vapour images show little organisation even though there is a more active wave train running along the AEJ or African Easterly Jet and this is pushing out some good waves into the Atlantic as you can see below.

wv-l

The real problem initially was the huge amounts of African dust which was blowing out across the Atlantic as well as the large scale sinking beneath stronger than normal high pressure.

Right now it’s a combination of stronger than normal heights which is supressing upward motion but there is a lot of shear or winds blowing west to east. So anything that does attempt to develop, cannot and I don’t see any real change in this pattern right across the Atlantic tropical basin anytime over the next 7-10 days.

rb-l

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Here’s another AccuWeather graphic showing you the setup.

Source: AccuWeather

Source: AccuWeather

It’s interesting because the MJO is firmly in phase 1 and trying to enter phase two which is typically a more favourable phase for the Atlantic where we see more widespread upward motion.

According to the GFS MJO ensemble. The period between Sept 3 and 23rd could be a ‘better’ period for development as you can see in the below chart the ‘greens’ appearing over the Atlantic basin which suggests an increased chance of convection.

cfs

No real sign of the GFS taking the MJO into an even better phase 2.

ensplume_small

 

I guess the one thing about this season so far is, that it’s been terrific for those vacationing right across the tropics. All that stronger than normal high pressure, dry air and shear has make for nice hot sunny weather and far fewer stormy days you would typically see at this time of year at these more southerly latitudes but like I say, don’t let your guard down.

Grand_Turk_beach

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