The latest run of the ECMWF has very little change with the Icelandic storm this weekend. Cold air, wind and snow all remain on the table. The one slight shift is minimum pressure which is up nearer 980mb over Iceland but this is a marginal difference. The 5,000ft temps remain at 0C or lower as the storm passes and northerly winds look just as strong and snow is still projected to cover a good chunk of the mid and higher terrain.

Concern very much remains over the combination of gale-force winds, cold, wind chill and spells of moderate to heavy snow, particularly in more exposed northern areas which are susceptible to power loss and being cut off, especially if blizzard conditions develop. The exceptionally early time of year will not only greatly impact man but beast also and I really hope that this storm won’t have the same impacts as the mid-September snowstorm last year.

Below is the latest ECMWF snow chart through 120 hours.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

As for the rest of this weekend into next week. The model has got some changes from yesterday. Interestingly the Azores ridge appears to be stronger and therefore the first of two troughs which will drop over Western Europe will be weaker so less of a chill particularly for the southern UK. We will also see less wet weather across southern areas also during Sunday as heights never really lower all that much and will be on their way up again as early as Sunday.

Note in the 78 hr surface/precipitation chart below with the lack of rain and strong heights over Ireland and much of the UK. The wet conditions are largely confined to western Scotland.

By Tuesday, the second low, mentioned in yesterday’s write-up and video takes aim at Iceland bring more cold and potential high elev snow. Note in the below 132 hr chart the front beginning to drop into Scotland. This marks the rather dramatic change looming towards the second half of next week. That front separating rather warm air with cool air, could bring a decent soaking with strong winds to much of the UK, especially if it progresses slowly south like the model suggests.

The strong Azores ridge will begin to push east into Europe by mid next week as the low near Iceland gains strength and coverage. It would appear the ECMWF is trying to develop a battle between the ridge and trough with the trough deepening south over the UK but because the ridge is strong out to it’s east, the low drops into it’s own trough and with nowhere for all this bundling of energy to go.. it appears to deepen dramatically DIRECTLY over the UK. This is a weird and rare sight to see on a chart.

Check it out.. 204 hrs

Between 204 and 228 hrs, just look at how this thing deepens. That would be a wild scenario for the UK and Ireland. Flooding rains, gale-force (maybe hurricane-force) winds, heavy seas. Possible funnels or tornadoes etc etc.

To me, this is worth watching but should be taken with a pinch of salt. It looks to be an extreme solution. Is the model bundling the energy too much and overcompensating? Time will tell.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart and 850mb temps.

Sat 31

Mon 2

Wed 4

Fri 6

Sun 8

The GFS NAO ensemble still shows negative towards mid-September and it now has a more negative look to the AO which means it could get considerably colder over Western Europe towards mid-month while staying warmer than average in the East.

NAO

AO

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]