There are three noteworthy aspects to discuss across the Lower 48 not only today but through the next few. Taking centre stage will be the hot dome that will force temperatures this afternoon as well as Monday and Tuesday afternoon up towards or above 100 in several Upper Midwest locales including Minneapolis and Des Moines.

While it’s all about the heat across the Central and Northern half of the nation, look towards the Gulf and it’s all about the heavy rains that will present flooding or flash flooding to parts of the region stretching from Mobile, AL to Houston, TX all thanks to a tropical low tracking west over the northern Gulf of Mexico and directed by the powerful upper ridge centred over the Plains.

Here’s the setup over the Southern Plains and while hot and dry from North Texas northward, it’s much more unsettled down towards Houston and Galveston where the combination of energy streaming in off the coast and the heat over the land will prompt strong upward motion and strong storms which could drop a lot of rain in short periods of time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see local amounts of 3-5 inches this afternoon and evening locally from Mobile through New Orleans to Houston on down to Corpus Christi.

See today’s US Video!

As for the Desert Southwest up into the Great Basin, we have decaying Tropical Storm Ivo which is drawing a lot of rich tropical moisture north and with the help of strong daytime heating, we could see not only persistent rainfall but embedded strong storms which dump local 1-2 inch per hour rains. Given this will occur in a hard, dry and dusty landscape in which moisture cannot be absorbed well, this poses a significant flash flood threat across a broad area of Southern California to the east of the San Bernardino Mountains, much of Arizona, southern Nevada, southern and central Utah reaching all the way to Salt Lake City not just tonight and tomorrow but all the way into mid next week.

As for the Northeast… weather is perfect today!

Below is the ECMWF rainfall totals through the next 7 days. Notice the high concentration of moisture both along the Gulf Coast as well as the Southwest up into the Great Basin and let’s not forget the heavy rains projected by the models across Ontario and Quebec also as storms develop and ride the northern periphery of the hot dome. It’s a classic ring of fire pattern.

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Below is a breakdown day by day of the ECMWF surface and precip chart.

A heavy flow of moisture sheds from Ivo’s centre up across the Baja and Northwest mainland Mexico tonight into tomorrow bringing heavy and persistent rainfall which could and is likely to lead to flash flooding locally. Heavy rains are seen streaming into the mid Gulf Coast region.

On Monday while moisture streams north into the Desert Southwest while the focus Gulf Coast rains take aim at Houston-Galveston and the Upper Texas Coast.

Moisture continues spread across south-central Texas Wednesday and may connect with the remnant moisture of Ivo to reinvigorate the Southwest rains while a rather substantial feature pushes across Ontario with potential severe weather and flooding rains.

By Thursday or 96 hrs, notice the scattered storms continue over the Interior West but the ridge core has slid west and with a rather interesting feature over the SE of Canada, we may need to watch carefully for a heavy rain/flood event over Quebec down into Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Heavy rains continue over northern Mexico.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb chart

Ridge has a 598dc centre! Impressive…

The Gulf and Pacific features are clearly seen.

By Tuesday the heat persists over the Central and Northern US but energy riding around the ridge will spark storms with flooding rains and look out for the possibility of MCS’s or mesocale convective systems at night.

Tue (48 hours)

By the later stage of the upcoming week, the ridge core shifts west enough to allow ‘slight’ troughiness over the Northeast. Keeping a close eye on a system over the Canadian Maritimes which may present a heavy rain and flood event to New England and parts of the Northeast by Friday into Saturday.

By 186 hours or next Sunday a trough is seen to slide into the PNW which forces the ridge back east and may allow 90-degree air back towards DC, Philadelphia and New York. Keep in mind that Philly remains 90-less this August!

As for the heat, it’s the Minnesota State Fair this week. Could it be the hottest?

Here’s the forecasted Minneapolis highs vs the records according to WeatherNation. Looks like the records will comfortably fall.

Here’s the forecasted temperatures off weather.com today through Tuesday

See video published earlier!

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