Flood Event Poised For Central Europe, UK Looking Good Next Week!

Written by on August 24, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

While the main low weakens and lifts north of Iceland, a large piece of it’s original energy has split and is bringing heavy, flooding rains to eastern England this afternoon. This energy is diving SE and aiding in the formation of a newly forming low at the tail of the original front.

This seemingly innocuous feature will intensify and push southeast into the heart of Europe, guided by high pressure to it’s north and building high pressure to it’s west, ultimately trapping it in place. This feature surface and upper level low poses a significant flood threat to Alpine Europe in coming days as it cools the upper levels of the atmosphere and draws together cold air from the north and warm, humid air from the Med. The final straw to this flash flood scenario will be the mountainous terrain of the Alps. This feature ultimately gets locked in on all sides by high pressure and so rains not only will be heavy but persistent, stretching over 2-3 days.

Here’s the satellite image from this morning showing the front crossing the UK but notice the new low forming on it’s tail over France!

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So, while we here in the UK look set for a largely settled and warm upcoming week except for some disturbances passing close enough to bring cloud, spells of rain to the north, a major rain event looks likely over Central Europe and is seen by the models.

Here’s the latest ECMWF rainfall totals over Europe through 120 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

168 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the 500mb chart off the ECMWF which shows the set up well at 48 hr (Mon)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the high pressure extending from the Azores to Finland traps the upper and surface low which will be drawing heat off the Med, helping enhance rainfall over the Alps of Austria, Switzerland, Czech Rep and North Italy.

72 hr (Tue)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

96 hr (Wed)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

120 hr (Thu)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

144 hr (Fri)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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