Europe Pattern Next 7 Days Contains Heat, Wind & Rain, Maybe Even Snow?

Written by on August 23, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The heat is well and truly on this afternoon across Southeast England as a low off Iceland and a large high centred over Scandinavia promotes warm southerly winds over the UK. Combine those warm southerly winds with some sunshine and the temperature has risen into the balmy 26-29C territory. However cloud and rain is spreading into western parts as the frontal system attached to the Icelandic low is set to bring drenching premature end to the summer heat.

Here was this morning’s satellite image off the Icelandic Met Office site showing the current setup with wet, windy conditions over Iceland while sunshine and warmth dominates Norway and Sweden.

130823_0800

Much of mainland Europe is enjoying decent late August weather with average to slightly above average temperatures and sun although we did have some showers and storms bubbling over western Germany and the eastern Low Countries as well as that cloud with outbreaks of rain pushing across Ireland and Northern Ireland. Spain and Portugal continues to enjoy sunshine along with above normal temperatures.

Here was the scene out of Reykjavik, Iceland late this morning with plenty of cloud and wind as that low spun not far to the southwest.

130823_1100

In stark contrast, here was Stockholm, Sweden early this afternoon beneath the high pressure.

120-slussen_2_live

In today’s post I want to show you the difference between the ECMWF and GFS for not only this weekend but through next week. There are some quite large differences.

Here they are..

ECMWF

Sat

The rain is on over the eastern UK tonight into Saturday where flash flooding is possible as energy associated with the front pushes into the warm, humid air lifting north. High pressure currently over central Europe will make way for the mess ready to pound the UK while high pressure remains firmly in charge over Norway, Sweden, Finland down into Denmark and northern parts of Germany and Poland over the next several days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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During Monday high pressure continues to provide pretty much ALL of Scandinavia with cloud free skies and warmth while high pressure returns to the UK following the very wet Friday night and Saturday but a large chunk of the energy which breaks off the Icelandic low and is the front which breaks the heat over the UK, will drop into central Europe where an upper low forms and will bring potentially flash flooding to some Alpine areas extending down into Italy early next week.

ecmwfued-hgtprs--europe-72-A-quickpickmslppcp

By Wednesday a system tracking ENE over top of the Azores high (north of the UK) will manage to push towards Norway and this appears to be the first signs of a breakdown for Scandinavia.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Thursday keeps the ridge and SW flow going over the UK and Ireland and clears things out across France and the Low Counties but unsettled weather returns to sunny/warm Scandinavia. The very wet, cool weather over the Alps shifts east eventaully bringing an end to the hot, sunny weather over the Balkans, Bulgaria, Romania and the Ukraine.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS

The sprawling Scandinavian high provides superb weather right across Scandinavia, Denmark and north Germany and Poland this weekend. The Icelandic low heads north while a large piece of it’s energy detaches and drops SE and will present very wet weather to the Alps. Same as the ECMWF.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As early as Monday, a new rain bearing front associated with the old Icelandic low that’s tracking NNE takes aim at Scandinavia as the ridge begins to show signs of weakening. That’s a good couple of days earlier than the ECMWF. That front also looks poised to bring rain south over the UK while wet weather from the first system brings heavy rainfall and messy conditions to much of central Europe still.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The front drops down over the UK during Tuesday as the low pushes heavy rains into Norway. Notice the large high on it’s tail, heading UK-bound. That’s quite a difference from the ECMWF which has a ridge over the UK, not a front dropping south and the high by this point remains over Scandinavia, albeit in a weakening phase.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Thursday shows a fairly deep trough over the North Atlantic with a low tracking NE towards Iceland. To the south, a substantial Azores ridge is pumping warm air up into the UK after the front clears south and east.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Could A Deep Low Bring The First Snowfall To Iceland Next Weekend?

The GFS shows a deep low spinning over or close to Iceland next Friday but the interesting thing is, Greenland is turning colder and it’s as this low passes to the south, the circulation may tap some of this could, turning precipitation to snow over higher elevations.

Here’s the surface chart by 165 hours or Friday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the 850mb temperatures and you can see the freezing line at 5,000ft.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the snow chart

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The ECMWF snow chart shows snow for Iceland as well as the higher elevations of the Alps as early as Wednesday, remembering the ECMWF trough over the North Atlantic (which cools the atmosphere above Iceland) and there’s the upper low which contains colder air to the south of the warm Scandinavia ridge also.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Be sure to watch the video that’s up for today!

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