Northern Plains 100s, Southeast Rains Loose Intensity, Long Range

Written by on August 22, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Think it’s hot now over the Dakotas into Minnesota, well it might be given the cool summer that it’s been but the secondary surge of heat which follows beginning Monday will comfortably beat what we have now.

A low tracking along the US-Canada border will temporarily break the heat as it drops a trough down and presents the very areas seeing 90+ now with cooling NW winds from Canada but through the weekend, after some heavy rains and storminess, a warm front lifts through and draws heat directly out of the Desert Southwest and with a howling SW wind, temperatures should beat the current hot spell by 4-8 degrees.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb chart for Monday. Notice the 584 height line reaching all the way to Winnipeg, 588 line north of Duluth and the 592 line getting close to Minneapolis.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Keep in mind the ground has now dried out over recent weeks after the very wet spring and start to summer in this region.

So, just how hot will it get? Comfortably the hottest of summer so far. Below is the projected surface temps off the GFS Monday through Wednesday.


Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro


Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Looks like there could be a decent sized area of SE North Dakota, NW South Dakota and west-central Minnesota where highs reach 100+ 3 straight days with one, perhaps two of those being 105+. Notice that by Wednesday, the 100 degree line nears Minneapolis. With enough WSW wind and sunshine, I recon the Twin Cities could make it to 100. It should get to 95+ for those 3 days. Chicago could see Tuesday through Thursday of 94+ with a peak of 96 or 97.

Even next weekend the GFS and ECMWF shows a significant hot dome centred over the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 324 hours or Wednesday 4th, the trough drops out of Canada and the heat gets forced west with a piece heading east.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The core of the continent’s heat will be centred over the Upper Midwest as shown in recent days off the CFSv2

Here’s week 1-2


The model continues to show the pullback of the heat week 3 and 4 (4-10th Sept) and shifts it into the Pacific Northwest while a piece heads east into New England.


The upper pattern is setting up differently now compared to the past 10 days where we’ve seen relentless flooding rains over the Southeast thanks to warm, humid air bumping up against a stalled frontal boundary. The cool, very wet pattern thankfully eases as heights rise on a large scale.

Below is the Southeast rain totals so far which BEAT what’s considered the ANNUAL average. Impressive totals given it’s only August.

Source: AccuWeather

Source: AccuWeather

The QPF still shows precip in the Southeast but nothing compared to what we’ve seen of late. Note the bulk of the heaviest rains shift and focus along the Gulf Coast. Sea breeze induced PM storms will bring the biggest rains along the Gulf Coast.


Looking long term. The CFSv2 continues to show a milder September with another cool month in the Southeast, helped greatly by the amount of water in the ground.


October continues to look cold with the first taste of winter expected.


November also continues to look cold. If this is correct. This could be rather interesting with early arctic cold blasts and snow.


Video tomorrow!

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