Next 7 Days: Spectacular In Scandinavia, Windy In Iceland, Turning Very Wet In Central Areas

Written by on August 22, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, as we push ever closer to September the west-east movement of our weather systems or progression of them is showing signs of speeding up as cold air begins to gain ground across the north. This increasing temperature imbalance is gradually accelerating the upper level winds, forcing ridges and troughs to move along faster than they did say 4 weeks ago.

Given the current and projected pattern seen by the models, we shouldn’t have minimal influence of the cold building to the north over the next couple of weeks but with an NAO set to go negative into early and mid September, don’t be surprised to see an autumnal chill in about 3 to 4 weeks from now. Between now and then we’ll see plenty of shots of summer.

The fight between residual warmth over the sub-tropics which continues to want to push north and the cold trying to work south begins. Even over just the next 3 to 5 days we’ll go from warmth and ridging to a trough then back to warmth and ridging.

getpicture

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In the below GFS surface chart you can clearly see the deep low winding up to the south of Iceland. A large part of the reason why this is tightening the way it is is because of the sprawling high over Scandinavia. The flow is west-east across the North Atlantic but when you get this large volume of energy pushing up against a wall, it’s forces the energy to spiral into itself, deepening the centre and so pressure over the next 24 hours may drop into the 970s. So, if you reside in Iceland and particularly the south shore, you’ll likely have some rather strong winds to contend with now and through the next few days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While it a windy, wet next couple of days in Iceland, the UK which sits between both conflicting weather systems will be under the influence of strong southerly winds which will transport a lot of warm air north from Africa and Spain allowing temperatures to eye 30C in London and 25C in central Scotland tomorrow.

The front associated with the Icelandic low won’t wait though and sweeps across Ireland tonight and the UK later tomorrow and all it’s energy will take a southerly route underneath the blocking high which continues to expand over Norway, Sweden, Finland south into Denmark and Germany.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While the deep low off Iceland weakens and tracks N across the country, a large chunk of the energy associated will dive into central Europe where it sets up a rather messy next several days from the Low Countries, France into the Alpine counties.

Fine, dry and warm beneath cloudless skies over Scandinavia, Denmark and North Germany and this looks to continue well into early and even mid next week with above normal temperatures.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

More low pressure and fronts sweep into the UK during Sunday according to the GFS and all this heads into central Europe as the blocking high shields Northern Europe from any weather!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Monday a trough and upper low develops over central Europe and becomes locked in place through much of next week as high pressure builds into the UK from the Azores while the Scandinavian high remains dominant. Expect heavy, flooding rains to possibly grab headlines over the Alps down into Italy and Greece next week and much cooler temperatures pushing into the Med. In fact we could see WARMER temperatures over southern Scandinavia than over some of the Med Island resorts mid next week.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

After a shaky start to next week, ridging pumps more warmth into Ireland and the UK. So after troughiness and cooler conditions this weekend, we’re right back to summer with low and mid-20s widely by next Wednesday and Thursday if models are correct.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The NAO looks set to go either neutral or negative towards the end of the 15 day period. Don’t be surprised to see more of a firmer trough setup week 2 of September!

nao_sprd2

ECMWF into next week

Sat 24

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

Mon 26

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Wed 28

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Fri 30

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

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