Progressive Europe Pattern With Confliction Between GFS & ECMWF

Written by on August 21, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been an unsettled but equally, warm day across many parts of the UK thanks to brightening skies and warm SSW winds in the upper levels. We managed to get 23C over Highland Scotland while it hit close to 27C at Gravesend, Kent this afternoon. As the low which produced the overnight and morning rain clears out, heights rebuild and with adequate sunshine temperatures in more western areas should push 22-23C over Scotland, 22C in Northern Ireland, 23-25C over Wales and the Republic while inland parts of Southwest England may approach 26C tomorrow.

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As for Friday, the atmosphere provides a tug of war with the UK sandwiched in between. While we have a fairly strong and sprawling upper ridge centred over Scandinavia, we also have the well advertised and deepening low out over the Atlantic that will have a front approach Ireland and eventually the UK west coast during the afternoon. This set up with warm, continental air in place and southerly winds accelerating north from Spain and France ahead of the front, we could see 29, maybe even 30C over Southeast England and 25C over central Scotland providing the front with it’s cloud and rain doesn’t arrive too early.

The ridge strength is key to holding the front off long enough for sunshine and south wind to do it’s work.

Here’s the GFS surface/precip chart for Friday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

There should be plenty of sunshine if the GFS is anything to go by. I do think there should be plenty of sunshine on offer.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

A nice stiff but WARM southwest wind blows at 5,000ft during Friday afternoon.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The upper flow is racing west to east across the Atlantic but all this spiralling ball of energy comes up against the resistance of the Scandinavian high, it’s bundling the energy and deepening the low into the 980s. Very windy and unsettled times across Iceland that’s for sure.

As for Saturday and Sunday, the front swings through bringing a spell of rain which could be heavy in places. The newest model runs suggests the mean jet position stays just north of the UK into next week so waves of rain should impact Northern Ireland and Scotland while heights are high enough further south that we should see more sun and less rain along with warmer temperatures.

The ECMWF shows this too with a stronger system pushing through mid next week which drops a trough down but is quickly followed by a warm ridge on the backside. The overall upper pattern remains progressive in it’s ridge-trough sequence and as time goes on and colder air begins to build and expand to the north, so this upper flow and the speed in which ridges and troughs come and go, accelerate with the natural change in the season.

The GFS shows a spell of heavy rain in the South during Saturday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Sunday the system clears to the SE into Belgium and France and the UK finds itself in a void between the Azores and Scandinavia highs with little wind and weather really. The warm sunny weather continues across Norway, Sweden and Finland as well as Poland, North Germany and Denmark while it’s more unsettled further south.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

According to the GFS, the UK remains sandwiched between a band of rain to the north of Scotland and south across the near continent with ridging in between during Monday and by the looks of it, Tuesday too.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS & ECMWF In Different World’s Mid Next Week

Interestingly, while the ECMWF shows a system barrelling through the UK Wednesday, the GFS shows high pressure remaining in control.

Check this out…

GFS

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Both models shows ridging late next week with the ECMWF clearing out Wednesday’s system with heights soaring on the backside. The GFS simply continues with it’s high pressure theme throughout next week.

Here’s the GFS

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Notice the ridge snaps over Scandinavia and wet, windy conditions return late week.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart/850 temps this weekend into next week.

Fri 23

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

Sun 25

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Tue 27

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Thu 29

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

Latest GFS NAO ensemble shows the positive phase lingering…

nao_sprd2

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