Heating Things Up Across US With MJO Becoming Favourable, CFS Shows A ‘Blocky’ Winter Ahead!

Written by on August 20, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

As we continue progressing through August the pattern is shifting from mid summer into late summer and with the MJO pulse not only becoming more favourable for tropical development in the Atlantic, it’s also shifting the temperature profile across the US. We’re seeing it heat up considerably across the Northern Tier after a long spell of September-like cool with upper 90s to 100 as far north as North Dakota.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart supporting the widespread 90s to low 100s tomorrow with temperatures on the rise from the Mid-Atlantic up into the Northeast as the ridge lifts heights.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_24

The initial surge of heat is temporarily cut late week as a low tracks across the North and temperatures are slashed from 90s in Minneapolis and Chicago as well as DC up to Boston midweek back into the low 80s.

The chart shows this cool down by Friday.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_96

BUT, for all you lovers of summertime heat. This pullback is short lived as heights build back on the heels of the low. Check out the CPC 8-14 day temps below.

814temp_new

 

As for the MJO entering phases 8, 1, 2 and 3 over the next 2-3 weeks, check out the temperature map below which shows the warmth spread from west to east across the country.

EMON_phase_51m_small(77)

Here’s the temperature charts to coincide with phases 1 through 3.

combined_image

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The CFSv2 shows the warmth of the front running 2 weeks.

wk1_wk2_20130818_NAsfcT

BUT, here comes the return to a cooler pattern week 3 and 4.

wk3_wk4_20130818_NAsfcT

Hoping for a good winter? Check out the latest run of the CFS 500mb height anomalies for Fall and Winter!

Model is suggesting a LOT of blocking in just the right places…

OCTOBER

cfsnh-3-10-2013

NOVEMBER

cfsnh-3-11-2013

DECEMBER

cfsnh-3-12-2013

JANUARY

cfsnh-3-1-2014

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