Tropics To Simmer Away, Southeast Soaking, 90s On The Way From Chicago To New York

Written by on August 16, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

There is a lot of weather on the table over the next 10-15 days as rain will be a right pain over the Southeast while the cool lives on borrowed time over the Midwest and Northeast. Why? Well for the past week now I’ve been showing you how that NAO is shooting into the most positive it’s been all summer and perhaps all year. Check this out.

nao_sprd2

As a result of that, you get this type of temperature setup over the hemisphere with a bundling of low heights and a cold pool centred generally over Greenland with a lot of warmth pushing east over the US as well as Western Europe.

nao_correlation_map

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As for the rains. As mentioned in last night’s post and the video released a few hours ago.. the stalled front is one thing but the push of deep tropical moisture this weekend will enhance the Southeast rains and this greatly concerns me about impacts considering the amount of water in the ground already.

Here’s the ECMWF total precip through 120 hrs.

ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-120-A-expandedtp

As for the warmth, well it sure is warm with another possible 100 reached again in SLC. From mid to late week, the heat pushes up into Montana and the Dakotas where it will get into the upper 90s, perhaps low 100s, certainly with downslope winds I expect Rapid City to get there probably Tuesday.

Chicago and Indy look to see 1-3 days of 90+ and by late week into next weekend I suspect 90-93 in the Big Cities from DC perhaps up to Boston.

Fri

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_24

Tue

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_120

Sat

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_216

Tropics won’t have impact on any major land through the next few days and the W Carib system I don’t see doing too much except enhance rains from NOLA up through the Carolinas.

Tropics though will remain active over the next 20 days given the MJO entering more favourable phases of 1 through 3.

EMON_phase_51m_small(76)

cfs

CFSv2 week 1 through 4. Note the heat over Midwest, Northeast, Ont, Que.

wk1_wk2_20130814_NAsfcT

By week 4 it reverses and turns cool widely as NAO is seen to go back negative.

wk3_wk4_20130814_NAsfcT

For more detail. see today’s North American video!

More tomorrow.

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