First A Taste Of Autumn Then Summer For Europe!

Written by on August 16, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

The UK and Ireland prepares to be impacted by a rather deep Atlantic low with pressure projected to drop into the 980-984mb range and with tightly packed isobars, expect blustery conditions everywhere, particularly around the coasts where we could see gale-force conditions.

By Sunday this low pushes into Scandinavia bringing wet, windy conditions down through Denmark and the Low Countries. The the back side of this low, high pressure will start to show it’s hand and that will be a sign of a larger scale change into next week as the height field hemisphere wide changes with a positive NAO developing for the next 10 days or so before a likely flip occurs once again.

Below is the ECMWF surface and precipitation charts through the next 7 days.

Here comes the autumnal mess tomorrow…

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Monday’s very much a day of sun and showers with most showers in the North, most sun in the South. Looking like a decent, warmish day over the Low Countries, Denmark and southern Scandinavia.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Warm surge comes north AHEAD of a feature pushing in from the southwest.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

A wet, possibly windy blip arrives Wednesday with the South of England looking largely unaffected.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Thursday the systems clear and heights have built in nicely, supporting cloud free skies and warmth.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Friday it’s all about high pressure, sunshine and warmth. I expect temperatures to be widely into the 22-27C range.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Once we get the deep low NE of the UK by Sunday, that is when heights rise on a large scale and the +NAO signal begins to showing with lowering heights over Greenland and the trough digs south into the North Atlantic. The Wednesday feature is one that’s riding but embedded within an area of rising heights. Thankfully rains aboard this feature isn’t as prolific as the models originally suggested but still don’t be surprised to see quite heavy rain. Remember where it’s originally from and the amount of warm air surrounding it. Warmth and moisture streaming from the sub-tropics has a tendency to drop quite a lot of rain.

As for the ECMWF upper charts and 850mb temps. The warmth is very much visible, particularly once the Wednesday system clears but of course we have some decent warmth and ridging lifting north ahead of this feature. This is really a blip in what will be an improving and warming trend through next week.

Tue

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Thu 22

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Sat 24

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

Mon 26

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

As for the NAO well it’s soaring well into positive territory now but notice it appears to head back into negative territory by the end of the 10 day period, just in time of a reality check as we end August and commence September.

nao_sprd2

Here’s the general temperature profile with a positive NAO and note the cold pool sitting over Greenland while a belt of warmth is found draped from the United States across to Britain and Western mainland Europe, cooler in eastern Europe.

nao_correlation_map

Interesting to see the CFS is now going for a BELOW NORMAL September with a mean trough over Western Europe. Is it seeing the negative NAO persist through much of next month? I of course have went for a mixed bag with a return to more unsettled along with a largely west-east flow to start the month but always with an up and down setup. Near average temps.

CFS Sept temps

cfs-8-9-2013

Sept 500mb height anomalies

cfs-3-9-2013

Sept Precip

cfs-6-9-2013

Hope to have your Europe Autumn Forecast written up and available for you at some point through this weekend.

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  1. Michael says:

    Looking very much forward to that Europe Autumn Forecast. 🙂

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