A Lot Of Rain To Come Thursday-Tuesday For Ireland, UK, Scandinavia But More Summer To Follow!

Written by on August 14, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

There is a lot of rain to come through the rest of this week and weekend but all signs now firmly point to a substantial warm, settled spell mid next week on into the weekend and the good news I have for you this evening is that it appears ALL areas including Ireland and Scotland will enjoy warm sunshine too as the ridge builds right across the UK and Ireland and extends into all of Western Europe.

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We have a system pushing in tonight which clears southeast during Friday but could bring some heavy rain through the Midlands and South Friday. Saturday looks to start off ok but rain with increasing winds spread in during the day Saturday as a sub-984mb low tracks east close to Scotland. Expect an unseasonably windy day later Saturday into Sunday across Northern areas with gales in the Western and Northern Isles.

More showers, blustery conditions take us into the new week and then it’s all eyes on a system riding the northern periphery of a ridge that will dominate the second half of next week. This feature with moisture of sub-tropical origin may pose a flood threat Tuesday into Wednesday across Ireland and Scotland but the details remain unclear at this time. It’s once this feature clears Wednesday, so heights significantly rise across the board and we have widespread temperatures of 22-26C Thursday on into next weekend if current models are correct which I believe they are. Both GFS and ECMWF are on the same page with next week’s scenario.

The only difference between models is the GFS looks less unsettled with more ridging, early in the week compared to the ECMWF.

Also, it remains quite unsettled 0r at least showery Thursday on into the weekend and early part of next week over Denmark and into Scandinavia but like here in the UK, the ridge should pump heat into these areas late in the week too.

The heat will really build over Spain and Portugal where temperatures away from the coast will climb widely towards 38C, possibly 42-44C in spots! For those heading to the Costas, expect highs of 30-35C. next week.

Below is the ECMWF surface and precip chart from tonight through next week. Each chart shows the next system pushing into the UK.

Thu

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Fri

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sat

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Mon

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Tue

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Thu

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The ECMWF shows the ridge last through at least late next weekend. This warm to hot spell could well linger into the early part of the week starting Monday the 26th.

My hunch is that we see a 5-7 day stretch of fine, dry and settled weather with temperatures back into the 23-28C range over Ireland, UK and Western flank of Europe then the NAO eventually returns to negative towards the closing days of August. The warmth MAY extend into the first few days of September, that can’t be ruled out. It’s really all in the timing of the NAO staying firmly positive.

The week 1 and 2 of the CFSv2 holds the ridge over the UK with a deep trough centred directly over Greenland. (Aug 14-20) but the breakdown occurs into week 3 or between Aug 28 and Sept 3.

wk1_wk2_20130813_z500

By week 3 and 4 (Aug 28-Sept 10) the mean ridge drifts NW of the UK and looks to shift towards Greenland. This will inevitably lower heights and bring the return of low pressure back to the UK.

wk3_wk4_20130813_z500
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