ECMWF, GFS, CFSv2 All Show Spain To UK Ridge Aug 22-26th

Written by on August 13, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The unsettled, highly Atlantic influenced pattern continues across Western Europe and this cooling influence with frequent fronts is gradually erasing the major heat that’s baked Europe over recent weeks. The jet is flattening out and so rain bearing frontal systems are now pushing maritime air all the way towards eastern areas. The focus of heat is now shifting south. However, while the next 7 days looks much the same with one front after another sweeping across Ireland, the UK and western and central Europe, the large scale height field is set for a major change yet again as low trough and a trough deepens over the North Atlantic. The NAO goes strongly positive next week as highlighted now for the past several days and that means warmer times are set to return to Western Europe.

The complicati9ng factor is how far north and how strong does the ridge get. Not so much for temperature but will it get far enough north to allow Northern Ireland and Scotland to get in on some summer sunshine and warmth. Both GFS and ECMWF are now seeing the ridge around the 22nd build in with a very hot air mass developing over Spain and Portugal. This provides a source for some very war, even hot air to push back into southern and central areas of the UK.

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As is often the case with this setup. A significant corridor of rain, with sub-tropical origin often rides the northern periphery of the hot dome and my concern is that Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland find themselves beneath the hosepipe of moisture while much of England and Wales enjoys hot summer sun.

The optimistic aspect to heat and sun getting all the way up into Northern areas is the fact that the NAO is set to go strongly positive and potentially one of the strongest positives yet. This however may mean very little.

Here’s the latest NAO ensemble off the GFS.

nao_sprd2

Here’s the next 5+ days off the GFS surface chart and you can see plenty more systems are set to push through before any major ridge develops and builds in.

(42 hrs – Thu) Here’s the next system with some moderate to heavy rain for central Scotland, northern England.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

(72 hrs – Fri) More rain follows the initial front

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

(90 hr – Sat) Some clearing before more wet weather arrives late Sat into Sun.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

(120 hr – Sun) Deep sub 988mb low passes just north of Scotland bringing spells of rain, showers and potentially windy conditions to the North.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

(168 hrs – Tues) Ridge begins to build into the UK but it’s worth watching the area of heavy rains to the southwest as this may ride the northern periphery of the ridge into Ireland and Scotland but if the ridge is stronger, then this may impact points further north.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

(192 hrs – Wed) as you can see the GFS has this heavy stream of sub-tropical moisture pushing across Ireland and into Scotland mid next week while it’s hot and sunny with temperatures potentially eyeing 30C once again across the South.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Below is the ECMWF upper chart and 850mb temps for mid to next week and you can see the model is seeing the return to a warm ridge which may support real heat once again.

Wed 21

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

Fri 23

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240
The CFSv2 is now in line with the GFS and ECMWF with next week’s ridge extending from Spain to the UK. I know it’s not clear and the UK is upside  but you get the idea.

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