A Look At The U.S Fall And Winter

Written by on August 8, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

I did a video Tuesday night which looked at the upcoming US fall and winter. Here are the charts which were looked at.

Remember, I believe that the warmth we’ve seen this summer over more northern areas which have produced a lot of warm waters across the North this year, could well lead to strong high latitude blocking. The models are showing the tripole of warm-cold-warm over the North Atlantic which bodes well for a Greenland block.

Here are the current sea surface temp anomalies.

anomnight_8_5_2013

The warmer than normal SST’s over the North Pacific and near to NW North America may support more of a positive PNA or ridge up the West Coast of NA which would support a trough over the central and eastern US.

Here are projected SST’s for December according to the CFSv2. Note the tripole or warm-cold-warm over the North Atlantic. This supports a Greenland block which in turn supports the possibility of twin troughs either side. 1 over eastern North America, the other over western Europe.

glbSSTMonInd5

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The CFSv2 does show warmer than normal temperatures over Greenland during the winter months which indicates a blocking high.

arT2mSeaInd5

If this occurs then there’s no surprise in what the CFSv2 has for winter.

December

usT2mMonInd5

January

usT2mMonInd6

The December through February period.

usT2mSeaInd5

See VIDEO for analysis!
It’s of course a long way to go but time is ticking and I will have my Official US Winter Forecast release likely around October 31.

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