Hemispheric/North American Pattern Similar To 2004? Could The Hurricane Season That Year Follow?

Written by on August 7, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

August was the finale to what was a cool summer across the United States back in 2004.

The reason I bring this up tonight is my concern of a similarity in setup between this August and that of 2004 and of course I am bringing up the hurricane season of that year which was very sluggish to get going keeping in mind that Tropical depression ONE didn’t form till July 31 but once that season got underway, well it was like the lid came off.

Here’s August 2004 stats via NOAA.

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Yes, it was that cold.

Here’s precipitation.

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Firstly, here’s July of this year

compday_oZoIgGvuzu

Now here’s the CFSv2 for August 2013

Temps

usT2mMonInd1

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Precip

usPrecMonInd1

While I don’t think this August will be anywhere near as extreme in terms of cold as August 2004 nor will the hurricane season but I want you to be made aware of similarities I believe are there between the end game to this summer and summer of that year.

The hurricane season has pretty much been non existent up until now and of course we’ve seen all that dust blow off the Sahara and cross the Atlantic. That would lead you into thinking this season will never happen but take a look at the dates in the image below of the 2004 hurricane season. That year was a no go up until August and then look what followed.

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This August looks to be the coldest since 2004. This season has been very slow in the tropics but I’m merely pointing out the fact that we shouldn’t be fooled by the slow chart. We should all be aware of what can happen when the time is right..

As for SST’s. globally, they aren’t too dissimilar.

August 3, 2004

anomnight_8_3_2004

August 1, 2013

anomnight_8_1_2013

Note the abnormally warm waters up across the far north. Warmth surrounding the UK and up across Alaska. Notice the equatorial Pacific has a larger area of cool but interestingly, there’s an area of well above normal on both charts right up against the NW South American coast.

I hope you got the chance to watch today’s North America Outlook video. I look in detail at the possibilities for later down the road and if the CFSv2 is correct then there’s one heck of a cold fall and winter on the way.

Incidentally, 2004 after a very busy late tropical system in the shadow of a cold August and fall, the winter that followed brought some decent spells of snow and cold to the Eastern US just like we’re seeing for August, Fall and potentially winter this year. See what I’m getting at? Don’t rule out the hurricane season by any means and always remember, it’s not all about the numbers but what’s produced.

I want to reiterate. I don’t think neither the cold August or the hurricane season will be as extreme, but there are clear similarities in Hemispheric and North American pattern along with SST’s to 2004. Will the hurricane season all of a sudden pop?

As a reminder, here’s the CFSv2 for Dec-Feb.

usT2mSeaInd5

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