Next 4 Weeks: Heat Focus Shifts To Pacific Northwest (& TX), N. Canada While Lower 48 Is Below Normal

Written by on August 5, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It was a cool start to Sunday morning across the Upper Midwest extending into the interior Northeast with 36-38F readings recorded over northern Minnesota. As we progress through August, each shot of cool air that comes down will begin to turn cooler and before we know it, it will be lows into the upper 20s and not upper 30s. 50s were common this morning in towns and cities through the Midwest, Lakes and interior Northeast with pockets of 40s in rural areas. All thanks to a trough with cool, dry northwest winds blowing in from northern Canada.

As these cooling northwest winds draw arctic air out, warm air replaces that void and it turns even warmer than it already is across the vast tundra and sub arctic region of Northwest Canada. 80s will become common with 90s showing up potentially all the way to the arctic circle. This has been advertised now for a week. But while the warmth gains more and more ground, look out below. A large swath of southern Canada and the Lower 48 will see 7-day departures of 5-10 degrees below normal.

The pattern last weekend showed the setup we’re likely to see throughout much of August with upper 90s to low 100s over much of Texas extending up into the Great Basin while a dip in the jet and northwest winds bringing cool air to the Midwest and East.

BTW, while the West and Northeast was warmer than normal, the bulk of the nation has ended normal to below and it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a near normal to slightly below normal month when stats come out. What a difference compared to last July which was considered warmest or second warmest July on record. August is likely to be below normal with many areas considerably below normal.

Check out the CFSv2 weekly. This model continues to show the majority of the Lower 48 below normal but we can’t ignore the front 2-3 weeks of abnormal warmth over top.

wk1_wk2_20130803_NAsfcT

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Note the 6-10 day has warmer than normal over Texas into Louisiana while even warmer than normal over the Pacific Northwest extending across Northwest and Northern Canada but the bulk of the Lower 48 is below normal.

By week 3-4 the chill intensifies while the heat is lost in both PNW and Texas and week 4 it’s lost across the Northwest and North of Canada.

wk3_wk4_20130803_NAsfcT

Here’s August overall.

usT2mSeaInd1

A LOT of precip is expected over coming weeks across much of the nation with focus on Southeast up into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley.

usPrecMonInd1

Of course we have seen and will continue to see plenty of warmth extend from the Great Basin extending into Texas. Salt Lake will challenge 100 many if not most days this upcoming week but through the second half of the week I think the heat focus transfers into 2 areas. 1) The Pacific Northwest and 2) over Texas and as for flooding rains. The corridor shifts into the Mid-Atlantic region.

Central Plains Flooding Rains

In the last written post I alluded to the heavy rains expected over the Central Plains as a boundary separated two very different air masses. Those big rains came down in style across parts of Kansas last night into the early hours of this morning.

4-8″ of rain came down within 12-24 hours over Kansas as cool dry air dropped south from Canada while hot, humid air pushed north from the Gulf. Upper level energy riding in between allowed towering thunderclouds to develop and produce the flash flooding. In extreme cases 10-15″ of rain fell within 24-48 hours.

Check out this picture from Weather Nation.

Source: Weather Nation

Source: Weather Nation

The Hutchinson area saw some of the worst flooding overnight with residents told to stay home.

Here’s a graphic from Weather Nation showing the 24 hour Kansas rain totals.

Source: Weather Nation

Source: Weather Nation

Here’s the latest QPF rainfall for the upcoming 7 days. Focus of rain shifts into Mid-Atlantic.

p168i

The ridge is set to build over the Lone Star State this week and that means persistent 100-degree days for Dallas and possibly even Houston too. It will be at least 98-99 every day this upcoming week in Houston and we could see just as easily 100 each day with this setup. The ridge will sure to strong enough and 850s warm enough. The dry ground too will help with the heating up of the air also.

Humidity is very high over the Upper Texas coast these days with dew points in the mid to upper 70s with the Gulf Coast communities stretching from Corpus up past Galveston in the 79-82 degree range, that’s putting heat indexes up into the dangerous 110 range while even Houston and surrounding areas are into the 105-110 range.

Here’s the local CBS forecasts for both Dallas and Houston.

Dallas forecast by CBS Dallas

5_DAY

Houston forecast by KHOU.com

7daytest

As a taster of the post I shall have for you Monday. Here’s the CFSv2 temperatures for Dec through Feb……

usT2mSeaInd5

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That\’s it, [s2Get constant=\”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME\” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan\’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top