Conveyor Of Fronts Sweep Into Western Europe, Hot In Mediterranean & Central Areas

Written by on August 4, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 4 Comments

Looking across the continent at the moment we have a rather unsettled theme going with a hosepipe of moisture set to spread northeast from the Azores up through the UK today and into tomorrow. Further east and the heat has been removed from France, the Low Countries up into Denmark and western parts of Scandinavia, however, while not on par with the last blast of heat, we will see a warm up again for Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam up into Copenhagen Monday as a ridge pumps 25-28C heat northwards in between two fronts. The front that brought an end to the fast blast of ‘hottest weather yet’ will bring unsettled weather in the form of showers, storms and flooding to central areas while a new front pushes into the UK today.

After all the stable, warm conditions last month, the well advertised pattern change is well and truly complete as a conveyor of lows will swing one front after the other into Ireland and the UK, then across France, the Low Countries, Denmark and Scandinavia.

The problem with today, tonight and tomorrow’s front pushing into the UK is that it’s drawing on a long fetch of sub-tropical moisture from the Azores and that means not only will be last a good 12+ hours but the rain will be heavy. Remember SST’s are now warmer than normal and so a warm source region of moisture combined with warmer than normal waters beneath means a LOT of moisture feeding northeast is likely to present flooding issues initially over England and Wales, then Scotland tomorrow. Ireland and Northern Ireland will see sunshine and showers but the bulk of the wet weather remains to the east.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The ECMWF shows the plume of moisture streaming into the UK over the next 30 hours.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s a close up.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Later Monday this plume shall push out into the North Sea bringing a wet Tuesday to France, Low Countries, Denmark and Norway. Tuesday will be a sunshine and showers day over Ireland and the UK but the next system will be approaching from the west.

Here Tuesday’s chart. UK finds itself between front.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Wednesday, a low takes a more southeast route on approach to Ireland while a low forms and brings increasingly wet conditions to France up into Belgium and the Netherlands.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Major Rain Event For N France, Low Countries, Denmark, Germany Thursday?

Interestingly the model joins the two systems up later Wednesday into Thursday morning and sets up a major rain event for northern France, the Low Countries, Denmark and western Germany. Check this out..

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While the ECMWF has the focus of heaviest rains on the other side of the North Sea, there would be outbreaks of rain and widespread showers across the UK with the best of any drier weather further west over Ireland. Ridging will be located to the north. The hottest air will be centered over eastern Europe with potentially record heat over Poland, western Russia down into the eastern and central Mediterranean.

By Friday the low pressure SOAKER heads north into Norway with it’s associated front sliding east. At this point the UK enjoys a spell of higher pressure and more settled conditions later Thursday, however a a low pressure centre positioned west of Iceland will have a NW-SE oriented trough which looks to bring rain back into the UK and Ireland.

Here’s Friday morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The later stages of next week looks to support a generally sunshine and showers regime before low pressure pushes into the make for a wet weekend across Ireland the UK and into the Low Countries, Denmark and Scandinavia.

Next Sunday morning

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart which best shows where the heat will be over the next 7-10 days. Live or vacationing in Spain, Portugal, across the Mediterranean Basin (esp in countries on the north coast) up into the Balkans, Poland, Russia expect above normal temperatures and some VERY hot conditions nearest to the Med coast, interior Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria where it will reach 38-42C.

Mon 5

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_24

Wed 7

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_72

Fri 9

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

Sun 11

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

Tue 13

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_216

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That\’s it, [s2Get constant=\”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME\” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan\’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

4 Reader Comments

Trackback URL Comments RSS Feed

  1. Mark Vogan says:

    Looks interesting doesn’t it… Where about’s are you in Denmark, Michael? Have a good one.

  2. Michael says:

    Great article, Mark. It shall be interesting to follow the coming days, Needless to say we really need all that rain here, as it has been very dry in July. So bring it on! 🙂

Leave a Reply

Top