According to the NWS, the city of Salt Lake City has recorded it’s hottest July since 1874 and with 19 days of 100 degrees or higher, another record looks to be threatened. The record for most 100s in a year is 22 but with the next 5 days likely to hover in the 98-101 degree range, that record too looks to be threatened.

The ridge looks to stand firm over the Great Basin and with warm enough 850mb temperatures, it looks like they will come very close to a tie. Let’s not forget that August has only just begun too and given the abnormally dry conditions across the West, the ridge is likely to be stronger than normal here this month so even if we don’t squeeze out another couple of 100s in the next 5 days, we may see it later down the road.

While it remains hot throughout the West, the trough will continue to feed rain and storm bearing fronts through the Midwest and East with cool fall-like air to follow. The next 2-3 weeks looks very cool across much of the East and we’ll see a corridor of heavy, flooding rains set up from Kansas and Oklahoma across to Virginia and down to Florida thanks to the interaction of cool, dry shots dropping south and warm, humid air lifting north with plenty of upper level support overtop.

The heat will remain strong over Texas through the next 7 days as the ridge sits overhead. Rain chances look low from Dallas to Houston.

Latest ECMWF into next week.

Note the heat pushing into arctic Canada. We’re likely to see record 90s over the Yukon and NWT.

Sat 3

Mon 5

Wed 7

Fri 9

As mentioned in last night’s post, we’ve seen front 1 of 3 push through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and 2 will come through tomorrow and then clearing takes place later Sunday into Monday and Tuesday, making for a glorious first few days of the new work week with low humidity, plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the 70s, low 80s widely.

Here’s the ECMWF surface for Saturday.

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The clearing a beautiful weather later Monday.

By late Tuesday we have a fairly deep system spinning over Manitoba which will bring heavy rains to the Upper Midwest and behind that cold front which will sink SE into Thursday, much cooler, drier air comes down bringing another blast of fall-like air. As that front drops through the Lakes, SW winds may try to bring up those temperatures in the East and the remnants of Dorian may enhance rainfall from Florida to Maine. Looks out Thursday as the cold front edges into the Northeast while tropical moisture comes north. This could be the recipe for fairly large rain amounts, particularly for New England down to Virginia.

Here’s early Thursday. Note the storm spinning over Manitoba, the rain and storm bearing front bringing rains through the Lakes as well as over the Central Plains.

Here’s later Thursday..

Plenty of rainfall over Florida next 5-7 days.

The ECMWF interestingly is holding back the SE progression of the front and bringing big rains from southern Iowa through Chicago and into New England.

The front eventually pushes through the Big Northeast Cities next Saturday.

Latest QPF 7 day rain totals.

 

Finally, here’s a look at the 6-10/8-14 day CFSv2 temperatures. Rather chilly looking!! Even notice the Western ridge significantly weakens..

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Tags: heatwave, sale lake city hottest july on record, Western US heatwave, Western US weather