Chilly August & Fall Ahead For Most Of U.S, No More 90s Philly, NYC, Boston?

Written by on July 31, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Pretty much every model I’ve looked out shows a cool August for the United States with the CFSv2 showing the majority of the Lower 48 cooler than normal since the start of July.

The ECMWF and GFS has a mean trough extending from Minnesota to the Mid-Atlantic over the next 7-10 with the ECM showing a deepening upper low over Hudson Bay towards the end of the 10 day which is seen to drop into the Upper Midwest. This could bring an even cooler air mass into the Midwest than the one we saw this past weekend.

Let’s not forget that while the pattern strongly suggests a below to well below normal start to August from Minnesota to perhaps the Southeast, we must not forget the amount of warmth pushing up into the northwest corner of NA in order to get that fall-like chill down. We’re likely to see records fall all the way up to the arctic circle and throughout the Yukon and NWT.

Check out the CFSv2 4 week temp anomalies. They remain adamant that pretty much away from the Great Basin/Rockies and Texas, it’s below to well below normal.




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That’s a right chilly look all the way out to the end of August.

The West will continue to back and upper heights are now going to where the ground is driest. Look for a back in forth with the ridge core between Utah and Texas and even with any flattening of the upper pattern, I don’t see any real heat making it much past the Mississippi.

Dallas will see more 100s in coming days and Houston will certainly get close if not top it a few times over the next week or so.

As for Salt Lake City, they’ve reached 100 17 times this summer and with a strong upper ridge sitting overhead in the next 4 to 5 days, we should see another 2 or 3 to all to the growing list. Even if the record 21 days of 100+ isn’t tied, it’s going to be close as the ridge should to come and go through August.

Given the persistently in the trough over the East, I am struggling to see another 90 in Philly, NYC and Boston over the next 2-4 weeks but it’s possible we get a sneaky one or two if we get a deep trough drop initially into the Midwest, which triggers a SW flow up the East Coast but equally it would not surprise me if we don’t see any 90s in the Big Cities throughout August or the rest of the summer at all. I say Philly north because DC I think we just manage to squeeze another few but even here, it may be quite difficult.

Here’s the very latest CFSv2 temps for August.


Is this a trend as we head towards the fall?

While it shows a below normal Sept, here’s Oct!


As for winter.. well this model continues to show a rather cold looking December and January. Looks MUCH colder this upcoming winter for much of the Central and Eastern US. Remember last year it was pretty slow to get going.



Jan 2014


If this was model was right about the December, January period, well what a start and mid winter period that would be over the Eastern US!!

For more detail on the upcoming 7-10 day pattern, be sure to check out my US video from earlier!

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