As the warm front continues to lift north over the UK this evening bringing a thorough soaking to Northern England, Scotland and Ireland, the warm and humid air continues to gain ground over England and Wales, setting the stage for a downright hot day tomorrow. That very warm front will keep Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland wet and disappointing tomorrow but head south of the border and it’s a very different day. Temperatures look to soar into the upper 20s across the Midlands and eastern parts of Wales while 30 to 32C is likely across the Southeast. This hot surge will be a one day event as the warm front comes back southeast in the form of a cold front Friday and so temperatures go from rising 4-6C between today and tomorrow to falling 4-6C between tomorrow and Friday.

The real interest in this heat in coming days will be on the other side of the North Sea rather than England despite temperatures set to soar. We only see ONE day of hot air while we may see 2-4 days with temperatures soaring into the 32-34C range across interior Belgium, Netherlands Friday and into Saturday. It’s as the cold front sweeping across the UK edges closer to the Dutch and Belgian coast that the hottest air potentially of this summer pushes up through Denmark into southern Sweden where it may top 30-32C during Saturday and Sunday.

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The trough looks to settle in across the UK and Ireland this weekend and into next week while the ridge and warm air is all pushed east.

Next week now looks more like a mixed bag with a trough dominating. As it stands, I am not convinced now that the heat resurges back into England as the ECMWF probably has the right idea is keeping the trough stronger and holding it in place. Make the most of the hot surge if you live in France, the Low Countries up into southern Scandinavia this weekend as the ridge and heat eventually pushes into eastern Europe. The trough looks to flatten the height field across much of Europe by mid to late week, transferring much of the heat into eastern Europe and the Mediterranean.

By no means is this a true cool down. The air mass throughout the continent remains warm and it will really take a stronger trough with much lower heights containing modest arctic air to bring a true taste of autumn. I don’t see that just yet but I imagine that over the next 10 days, models will start to show the initial signs of a pattern change, perhaps kicking in during the 3rd or 4th week of August. I am keeping a close eye on the US pattern with increasingly cooler air masses coming out of the arctic. The focus of heat hemispherically has been more on the Europe side of the pond than North America and so it will take longer to weaken all the warmth over us right now.

High pressure may sound nice next week but a high within a trough at this time of year means a stubborn sunshine and showers setup. In the sun it will warm nicely and feel very pleasant. Nights may turn cooler as the high does supply largely clear skies but it’s as the surface heats through the morning. That warmth is encouraged to quickly rise towards the cooler air aloft and so clouds and showers develop.

The GFS for a few days had a much warmer look than the ECMWF for the UK next week but as stated above, it now appears to be going towards the cool, unsettled and troughy look the ECMWF originally had for next week.

Sat 3

Mon 5

Wed 7

I continue to work on my Autumn forecast which I hope to release mid-August but right now there is little guidance from the Long Range models. I expect a benign UK/Western Europe pattern to kick in this weekend which may linger into the 2nd week of August but we may continue to see flirts of warm, humid air back into the UK through much of August, perhaps extending into September.

This autumn could go two ways I think. The warmth continues with spells of wet and very unsettled weather or we see a fairly dramatic flip to much cooler late month. Right now I think the warmth may linger with cool or cold air slow to come back into Europe.

While there’s little guidance from the CFSv2 on the upcoming winter, the Jamstec continues to have a cold look for western Europe. I buy this idea for multiple reasons including projected SST’s globally as well as the Atlantic, projected ENSO and low sunspot cycle as well as increased volcanic activity of late.. Still looking good for all you winter weather lovers out there.

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