Despite a lot of hot air pushing north over the western side of the continent the next 5 days, it remains very unsettled over Britain and Ireland. In the last 48 to 72 hours, a strong cold front has swept east across France, the Low Countries and into Germany as cooler maritime air slams up against a wall of heat over Europe. Eventually the cold front weakens as it becomes absorbed and the ridge and heat rebuilds again back over Iberia. The UK’s unsettled conditions are set to become even more unsettled through the mid and later part of this week as heat begins to push up from Spain through France and eventually edging into southern and central England. However as this hot, humid air migrates north, so an approaching cold front slides across Ireland and into the western UK but the hot air and ridge deflects this front, keeping it over Scotland and it’s here as well as Ireland and Northern Ireland where there’s real concern for torrential, flooding rainfall during Thursday while temperatures nudge 32C in London and the Southeast.
Here’s the GFS for Thursday and notice the swath of heavy rain arching around the hot dome.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
By Friday and into Saturday that front slides across all of the UK, kicking out the real heat but as the front pushes into the hot, humid air, a line of thunderstorms packing all sorts of wild weather including flash flooding is possible. This front also looks to force hotter air further north over the western mainland Europe. The hottest air of the year looks to push up into Denmark and southern and central Norway, Sweden and Finland where records may fall this weekend into early next week.
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If you live anywhere from southern Spain all the way up through France, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark into Scandinavia, the heat is on big time and should last several days. Temperatures should top 40C in Madrid, 36C in Paris, 33C in Brussels and Amsterdam and possibly 28 or 29C in Copenhagen while 30 or 31C is possible in Stockholm. The hottest spell appears to come later this weekend over Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland while the UK sees an active frontal system sweep west to east.
While the heat gets kicked out by Friday and shoved back into Europe, it appears the pattern repeats itself next week as the front eventually dissipates over the continent, absorbed by hot air and so the ridge once again rebuilds from Iberia up through France and back up into the UK.
Here’s the ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps.
Fri 2
By Sunday, while the trough is back over the UK, notice the ridge and how warm the 850s are over Scandinavia! Temps of 24 or 25C may reach north of the arctic circle…
By next Thursday the model has yet another push of hot air back up into the UK once again. This second surge could support even warmer temps that what we’ll see Thursday.
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It’s certainly interesting this repeating pattern of strong heat being pushed up North by a front. Last weekend was the hottest so far this summer here in Denmark and it was the exact situation that you mention. Here in the eastern part of Denmark we reached 29-30 degrees…locally even slightly higher, And with high humidity it felt very hot. And now it seems to repeat itself again by the end of this week and apparently again next week perhaps you say. This is a never ending summer for good or bad depending on your weather preference and heat tolerance. I do know a few people who suffer in such high temperatures.
What I personally hope for with these hot and humid conditions is some good thunderstorms. I love thunderstorms in the summer. Also we need some rain badly as there has hardly fallen a drop here in July. My region has hardly seen a rain cloud. According to the drought index of the Danish Meteorological Institute the drought level is 9 out of 10 at the moment and some places even 10 out of 10. And we have already had some wildfires due to the dry conditions.
Just got some rain and a little bit of thunder this afternoon. And more is coming tonight, they say, with chance of heavy rain. Finally the drought is over, 🙂