Systems Circle Dominant Europe High, Major Heat & Rain Late Week!

Written by on July 28, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We remain in a very active weather pattern across the UK and Ireland while it’s hot and sunny across much of Europe. Atlantic lows are riding the rim of the hot dome currently centred over central Europe. The UK and Ireland remains beneath the summer storm track and we will remain beneath the active corridor this upcoming week although the heaviest rains will shift north as the week progresses.

High pressure looks set to rebuild from Iberia up into the UK towards the later stages of the upcoming week but while it gets warm to hot, there’s lots more heavy, flooding rain to come.

While everywhere gets another decent soaking through the upcoming week with either thundery showers or longer spells of ‘system’ rain, the focus of heaviest rain will be across Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland where here, we can prepare for an additional 2-4 inches of rain over the next 7 days with one system after another training across the region. It’s a wet week over England and Wales too but the second half of the week sees major warmth build north again.

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Monday through Wednesday looks showery with a pulse of heavy rain pushing into southern Britain Tuesday. That pulse pushes north over the UK Wednesday, paralleling another system pushing across Ireland and heading towards Scotland where they merge Thursday bringing a very wet spell of weather. The southern system marks the northern edge of the ridge and as the ridge builds from France up into the UK, so the heavy, thundery rains shifts north with hot sunshine behind the warm front.

The surface

36 hrs (Lots of hefty showers break out widely)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS depicts Tuesday better than the ECMWF I think with a moisture plume creeping into the South of England (possibly Wales) while it’s largely fine and dry across the bulk of the UK. This system marks the northern periphery of the ridge which will bring 30s back into the UK by Thursday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While the ridge builds north, we’re watching closely a surface low pushing in from the SW. While heavy rain spreads across Ireland, it’s as this system taps the heat lifting north over Britain where it becomes problem. The heat release from the ridge will energise the low, helping produce heavy, possibly torrential rain across eastern Ireland, Northern Ireland and particularly Scotland. This setup could pose a significant flood threat to eastern Northern Ireland and much of central Scotland in particular Thursday.

Here’s the 108 hr ECMWF (corridor of rich moisture rims the northward extending ridge)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Heat Cranks Into Top Gear Thursday Through Saturday From Madrid To Hamburg

Give the strength of the ridge, thicknesses, 850 temps I expect highs of 43-45C in Madrid, 35-38C in Paris, 32-35C in Brussels, Amsterdam and Hamburg. While not quiet as hot, Denmark and southern Scandinavia look to get in on some summer heat as highs may push into the 27-30C range by Friday or Saturday.

Here’s the GFS forecasted 2 metre temps for Friday and Saturday afternoons..

Fri

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sat

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

South-Central and Southeast England should reach 32C Thursday.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart and 850mb temps.

Wed 31

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_72

Thu 1

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Fri 2

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

Sat 3

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

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