Midwest Cool Shot To Be Followed By Larger, Deeper Trough & Chill Next Weekend!

Written by on July 28, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It’s another chilly late July start from the Dakotas all the way down to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley with record lows extending all the way to Missouri and Illinois as well as Nebraska. As well as this morning’s chill, we saw a lot of record cold highs yesterday. The reason? An unusually strong and cold upper low spinning over Lake Superior is driving unseasonably cool, dry Canadian air south. Dew points in the low to mid 40s is helping the cool down after dark as dry air cools quicker that moist air but even by day, it’s only warming back into the 60s widely which is impressive given the strength of sun at this time of year. This is the warmest part of the year for much of the country.

It only ‘warmed’ to 64 in Minneapolis and 65 in Chicago yesterday. Both are record cold highs for July 27.

Here’s the upper chart off the ECMWF for today showing the setup currently over the Midwest that’s responsible for this early taste of fall in mid summer.


Record lows down in the 40s got all the way down to Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois this morning. Check out these record lows according to weather.com.

Source: weather.com

Source: weather.com

Chicago looks likely to stay in the 60s once again today which would make it the coldest July weekend since 1984 but as the upper low deepens it will starting shifting east as a trough enters the PNW. The departing cold low will veer winds westerly winds raising the temperature back into the low 70s in Minneapolis. By Tuesday expect both Minneapolis and Chicago to be back in the 80s but how long will this ‘warm-up’ last? The ECMWF continues to show another trough dropping back down over the Great Lakes and eventually all the way into the Southeast next weekend into the beginning of the following week.

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I say warm-up but really I mean low to mid 80s and a return to normal. There’s no sign of any 90s heading back into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes or East through at least the next couple of weeks. Whether we’ve seen the last of the 90s in Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, DC, Philly and New York for this summer remains to be seen. I don’t think I would go as far as to commit to that yet but certainly looking out to at least week 2 of August, the mean trough sits draped from Minnesota to Virginia while the ridge stays well to the west.

What a difference a weekend makes for New York City…

Source: Weather Nation

Source: Weather Nation

The cool extends east Monday as the upper low shifts east.

Here are the departures from normal tomorrow according to Weather Nation.


Dallas and Houston have a warming trend over the next 5- 7 days as the ridge builds in from the west heading back to where the ground remains dry but further north where it’s wetter, heights are lower over Kansas, Nebraska on up into the Dakotas.

Here’s the 5 day Dallas and Houston forecast’s according to CBS

Dallas 5 day

Source: CBS Dallas

Source: CBS Dallas

Houston 7 day

Source: KHOU.com

Source: KHOU.com

Here’s the ECMWF chart for next weekend on into the following week. The trough looks deeper and far more southward reaching than what we have now..

Sun 3


Mon 5


Tue 6


Wed 7

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