Big Rains & Big Storms For UK Next 7 Days, Hints Of Autumn To Follow?

Written by on July 26, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We’re in a very active summertime pattern right now with plenty of warm, humid air in the mix and when you’ve got all that warmth and humidity bottled up and drive fronts in from a low, you’ve got the recipe for a very thundery pattern. Heavy, torrential and even monsoon-like rainfall is occurring in places on a near daily basis. The clouds these days have great vertical structure. Scotland as well as Northern Ireland and Ireland are under the gun at the moment for those daily thunderstorms which when their over you, will drop a lot of rain in a very short period of time. Of course the rate at which the rain falls means temporary localised flooding, especially in urban areas where the water often has limited places it can run to. Drains quickly become overwhelmed.

You’ll also notice that these scattered storms aren’t clearing the air because this air mass is warm and humid. The storms aren’t associated with a front in which there’s cool air behind. These storms are simply developing with cool air on top of warm, moist air and their embedded within an overall warm, humid environment.

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As for England and Wales, well your lucky at the moment. A slightly more capped atmosphere is over you as your further away from the fronts associated with the low but things are set to dramatically go down hill tomorrow as a low is set to track northeastwards from the Bay of Biscay. The South of England looks set for some rather dramatic weather tomorrow evening into Sunday first, then more northern areas will be under the gun later Sunday after a dry start.

A LOT of heavy, flooding rainfall is on the way and is likely to cause problems. This pulse has been watched closely on the models for many days now and this setup is something I’ve highlighted throughout July even when there was seemingly NO end in sight to our dry, hot, settled pattern. That pattern would last so long then flip around and when it does look out! I never believed that the hot, dry pattern would continue through August. There’s not the right setup and those warm waters that have been generated by the heat, will and is doing it’s work now. Flooding rains are now the focus and likely will be through much of August.

Check out the current satellite image over Europe. Notice the circulation of the low to our west then all the clear sky over Europe. The high of course is what’s bringing all the sunshine but it’s that high along with the low which is drawing a lot of warmth and humidity up into the UK and the low is helping force the air upwards over Ireland and the Northern UK and as a result you’ve got downpours and storms. It’s a very buoyant atmosphere we’ve got right now. Id like to say it’s the closest we get to ‘tropical’.

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Last week of course we had a CAPPED atmosphere so it was hot, humid and sunny with no rain. It’s all about the UPPER level ridge which warms the mid levels. That warming in the mid levels of the atmosphere stops air from rising and so clouds cannot form. Right now we’re warm and humid but the key difference is there’s no warm layer in the mid levels and so all that heat and humidity can freely rise into the colder upper level environment to form towering cumulonimbus clouds.

There is concern later Saturday into Sunday as low pressure develops and tracks north over the Channel and up into Southern Britain. There’s a lot of warm, moist air coming north with this feature and so flooding is a real concern.

Below is the ECMWF surface and precipitation chart for Saturday afternoon and you can see the mess building over northern France.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 42 hrs the rain and embedded thunderstorms have pushes up into the Midlands and like the South and Southeast, we could well see some tremendous downpours within embedded thunderstorms. These could bring localised flash flooding with 1 inch per hour rainfall, damaging winds, hail, lightning strikes and funnel clouds.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 60 hrs the worst of the rains is up over the North of England and Scotland.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

This heavy, flooding rain unfortunately doesn’t end once it lifts up into Scotland because there’s more heavy rain spreading across Ireland and back into western parts of the UK by Monday as plumes of moisture wrap around the low.

84 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wet Pattern Turns Wetter Through Second Half of Next Week!

The model is suggesting a hosepipe of moisture streaming across Ireland and Scotland as well as northern England and Wales next Wednesday and Thursday while it’s looking decent further south through the Midlands and South as well as much of Wales.

150 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

180 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 204 hrs or next Saturday, the low is stretched out over Ireland and the UK with a lot of moisture circling.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Brief Hint Of Autumn?

Although this is very far out, the model suggests that once that low clears to the northeast around the 3rd, we catch a break plus finally see cooler come down from the northwest. We’ve not seen any real cool, refreshing air since June but this is something that we should watch closely. We could have our first hints of the upcoming season ahead with cooler days and nights, albeit likely brief.

Here’s the upper chart by next Saturday which shows the low stretched out SW to NE over the UK with moisture rotating around the centre, keeping it very unsettled but by Monday it’s over Norway with a cool northwest wind driven down on the backside.

Sat 3

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

Mon 5

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

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