Next Week’s Thunderstorms, Heavy, Flooding Rains Are Sign Of Things To Come In August!

Written by on July 20, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been another very warm to hot day across the western and northern UK as well as Ireland while in the east it’s been cool and for some, cloudy with highs stuck in the teens. Over the next few days we will see the ridge, currently drifting into the North Sea dive south and that means a southerly flow which draws warmer and much more humid air back into the South of England and Wales to start the new workweek. However, it’s as the ridge moves into the North Sea and drops south that the door is opened and a void is created, allowing a low near the Azores to push NE bringing thunderstorms, heavy rain and an end to our heatwave. This setup looks likely to burst our warm bubble.

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We shall also see the trough return good and proper by the end of next week and I do think, although we will see warm, sunny days to come, the pattern looks much cooler and more unsettled for the UK and Ireland through August.

My concern is the now abnormally warm water surrounding the UK because once you drive lower pressure over that warm water,  they have much more moisture to tap and therefore flooding is a concern.

So, here’s the breakdown charts via the GFS into next week.

It appears the GFS has a series of fronts with heavy, thundery rains sweeping northeast across Ireland and the UK next week with initial showers and storm followed by a much more pronounced front which could be troublesome. The trouble is, drive a front into a hot, humid air mass and you’ve got the recipe for torrential (flooding) rain, damaging wind, large hail, even funnels.

I want to make sure you understand something. While I do believe August is a very different month to what we have now, I’m not declaring it a washout but a mixed bag with spells of sun and warmth along with times of low pressure which may well produce heavy, flooding rains.. August may wind up above normal temperature-wise but when you’ve got warm waters like we have now and you lower pressures, look out! Many heat waves in the past have ended with flooding rains and a fast end to drought concerns.

Tue (90 hrs)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Once the trouble maker passes (above) yet another wave of rain sweeps in from the southwest.

Wed (114 hrs)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Fri (162 hrs)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As for the ECMWF total precipitation for the next 7 days, check this out! What a difference compared to the past 3 weeks of NO RAIN!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Check out these current water temperatures surrounding the UK and Ireland. Remember there’s been a major heatwave in the Eastern US as well as on this side of the pond and you can see the influence on water temps right across the Atlantic. By simply looking at those water temps, you can almost see where the ridge and trough has set up over the next 20 days.

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These warm waters in a pattern which could well see collapsing heights into August with low pressure dominating, may bring heavy, flooding rains, completely replenishing dry ground. Hopefully I am overdone with my thinking on August and it turns out warmer and drier but right now I can see a similar situation to August 2006 with heavy rains and cool temps following a hot, dry July.

euPrecMonInd1

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