UK Heat Worsens This Weekend, Next Week. Big Thunderstorms, Flooding Rains Loom!

Written by on July 19, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Beneath a strong upper ridge, fairly light winds and cloudless skies, temperatures topped out at 31.4C this afternoon in Porthmadog, Wales while it hit 30C in Castlederg, Co Tyrone and 29.5C in Prestwick, Ayrshire setting a new benchmark for the year in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. With conditions near identical if not even better, we should see equally as warm if not warmer tomorrow.

I stated way back last weekend that both Northern Ireland and Scotland should top 30C this weekend and we’ve seen that in NI today and likely will see it tomorrow in Scotland. The North of England also topped out at around 30C.

Back in July 2006 we saw 31C recorded at Prestwick and Scotland could get close tomorrow. I expect 28, possibly 29C in Glasgow, 28C in Dumfries tomorrow.

Little change in the original thinking for this weekend and on into next week. The ridge stands strong in the North making for the warmest conditions while it’s slightly cooler in the South but as we progress into early and mid next week the heat and humidity builds back across the South again as the ridge drifts south over the North Sea and triggers a hot, humid southerly flow. We may not have seen the warmest conditions yet for both England and Wales. It’s plausible to think that 34, even 35C is a maybe next week.


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As the upper ridge drifts into the North Sea then tracks south, tapping warmer air over Spain and France, we want to pay close attention to a developing upper low over the Azores, that feature will push NE towards the UK and will SIGNIFICANTLY increase the thunderstorm, even flood risk across a wide area. I would expect most areas of the UK and Ireland will be under the gun mid to late next week.

Here’s the latest upper charts off the ECMWF for next week.

Tue 23


Wed 24


Thu 25


The latest ECMWF surface charts show a front lifting northeast over Ireland Monday, then into the UK Tuesday-Wednesday. Timing is still unknown but with the level of heat and humidity being drawn north with the ridge centred to the east of the UK, this means we could see quite the storminess across a large swath by midweek.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface chart

Mon 22

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Tue 23

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Wed 24

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Fri 26

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Check out that line lifting NE Wednesday. Drive an active front into a very warm, humid and buoyant air mass and you’ve got trouble with feisty thunderstorms packing flash flooding, damaging winds and hail.

As for August, I still believe it’s a much wetter month and less hot, although it should wind up warmer than normal and yes, we could still see spells of warm weather but I think that as we enter the later part of the summer, with very warm SST’s thanks to the current heatwave, we could see flooding rains.

Here’s the latest CFSv2 precip forecast for August.


As you can see there is patches of slightly above normal rainfall.

I believe August will be a fairly wet month because patterns like we have now, that are stubborn and locked in place tend to snap and once they do, we often get a complete turnaround. From too dry to too wet. Think of our warmer than normal surrounding waters as fuel for lower pressure and weather systems to drop more rain on us later down the road.

Here’s Sept.


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