UK Heat Lingers Through Much Of Next Week, NI, Even Scotland Could Challenge All-Time Record

Written by on July 18, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

With a firmly established, locked in pattern such as this, forecasting the true breakdown of this hot spell well in advance is near impossible but modelling suggests an increase in thunderstorms and downpour towards the second half of next week, starting in the South, Southwest and spreading north but that’s a good week away and there’s a lot of warm air to contend with first. The feedback between dry ground and atmosphere continues to intensify and we’ll see over the next couple of days just how hot it gets across the more northern half of the UK. Recent days has seen the focus of heat in the South but as the ridge lifts back north, so the heat follows beneath.

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With a 588dc ridge on top of a 1030mb surface high centred over Scotland tomorrow, I expect temperatures to rise more or less everywhere by a good 2-4C from today’s values and for Edinburgh, it topped 28C while Aboyne made it to 29C. I believe western and central Northern Ireland and Scotland will be worth watching tomorrow as surface readings should surpass the 30C mark and quiet possibly Saturday too while more southern and eastern areas cool by 2-5C thanks to the development of a northeast wind.

The heat persists throughout the weekend with a focus in the North and Western half of Britain as well as Northern Ireland but into next week, models show the ridge push out into the North Sea and drop south with heights rebuilding along with mid-level temperatures on the rise once again.

The setup early to mid next week supports potentially warmer conditions for England and Wales, warmer than anything seen yet if the core of high pressure moves drifts south over the North Sea. A SSW flow would force hotter air back into the South and mid to late week charts suggests that as an upper low heads NE from the Azores towards the UK and Ireland, bringing that potential break in all this, it would also suggest that building heat over eastern Iberia and the western Med gets forced north, perhaps extending as far north as Southern and Midland England. All this is a little too far out to say for sure. After all, the overall breakdown could be delayed further if that ridge stands it’s ground more.

Just for your interest.

Glasgow’s all-time record high is 31C and while I think that’s safe, it could get pretty close to 30C tomorrow. As for Belfast, well it’s all-time record is 29.7C, again that would appear to be safe but may get close.

The worst of the heat over the next couple of days will be over western Northern Ireland and temperatures are expected to top 30C, so the all-time Northern Ireland record of 30.8C looks to be at risk. For Scotland, we saw 32.9C at Greycrook in the Borders back in August 2003. That ‘should’ be safe but I would not be surprised to see a 31C somewhere within the Central Lowlands tomorrow and or Saturday afternoon.

Be sure to watch the video I cut earlier. Provides more detail.

Here’s the ECMWF upper charts for the rest of this week, through the weekend and into much of next week. Notice the ridge core pushing back north, taking a loop out into the North Sea and then diving south.

Thu 18

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_0

Fri 19

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_24

Sat 20

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

Sun 21

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_72

Wed 24

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Fri 26

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

Sat 27

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_216

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart.. here’s what we’re keeping an eye on towards the end of next week… Timing is very up in the air right now. Depends upon whether this ridge can get clipped away away by the approaching upper low from the SW. This could bring some explosive, drenching thunderstorms to many areas next weekend into the following week.

192 hrs (next Friday)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

210 hrs (later Friday)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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