Thoughts, Charts On Upcoming U.S Fall & Winter!

Written by on July 17, 2013 in United States of America with 1 Comment

For those of you tired of heat, I thought I would post tonight on the upcoming fall and winter just to change things around some.

I’ve been looking at the CFSv2 a lot lately, trying to get a better handle on what we can expect across the Lower 48 into August, September and October and of course you know I’ve been leaning on the cool August idea for some time now. Really once this heat is out of the way across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, it’s likely to cool and not really heat back up to the same levels through the rest of the summer. With abnormally warm waters off the PNW/BC coast, the mean ridge up and down the West Coast should be stronger than normal into fall which should lead to shots of cool into the Midwest and East.

If your hoping for a fast start to winter and a cold MID-WINTER rather than a disappointing start like last year, you’ll love this below.

Here is of course August! Looking cool. Good for your energy bill and those who hate heat.


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The cooling trend continues into September!


Now check out October. This could be a cold and yes, SNOWY month over the Northern Tier. Warmth may try to hold on over Texas given the drought and that’s where your heat will shrink to well into fall.


Now, take a look at the two charts below… This would be a winter weather lovers dream for Easterners that’s for sure. Couldn’t get a much better than this for the heart of winter! That would be a heck of a December-January period, significantly bumping up heating costs.





The reason I’m buying into the CFSv2 idea for fall and winter so far is that I think a quick start to winter is on the way with a cooling trend August into September and then a quick start to winter in October, starting in the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest where summer has been largely uneventful. Cold will build fast over Arctic Canada with a colder than normal summer up there supporting a greater sea ice pack than in recent years.

If you notice, the majority of this summer’s heat has been held further south this year and that will likely play a major role in producing a cold spring which should lead to a much colder US winter.

Check out the SST’s for August.

All that warmth off North America should help hold a strong ridge in place and keep a largely positive PNA signal into early fall. Fall-like air masses can be expected into the East, particularly later in August.


By October a lot of the abnormally warm water in the North, northeast Atlantic has shrunk and we start to see a pool of cool develop underneath the warmth which should allow for a N Atlantic tripole of warm-cold-warm. That’s important as it can lead to increased winter blocking (Greenland block).


I believe the NAO should trend more negative this winter and such that with a more positive +PNA and -NAO, this should make for a far colder December and January period over the central and eastern US compared to last winter. It was a tough end to winter and spring but remember the start and mid point of winter saw plenty of warmth.

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  1. Penny says:

    There are a lot of GFS CFS showing freezing conditions My friend Paul has been posting lol and there looking like this winter is gonna be a monster for cold, hope so…..Penny.

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