Keeping Perspective: UK Is Warm But Not A Patch On 2006, Models Show Thundery End In Sight!

Written by on July 17, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

For those who are struggling with this warm weather, the end is in sight and always keep in mind that it could be and has been, far worse than this! Yes it’s been warm and yes we’ve seen 3 or 4 straight days topping 30C in Greater London but in the grand scheme of things, this is nothing. We’ve seen spells like this throughout history. Unfortunately we have very short memories when it comes to the weather. This is NOT a particularly bad heat wave. It’s the ‘worst since July 2006’ but this is no July 2006 as that month saw 14 straight days of 30C+ while today marks at the most, what 5 and it’s been a struggle to reach 32C. Let’s face it, it’s taken till today to reach 32C (90F) and today is likely the peak as temperatures may match today’s values tomorrow but then cool as the ridge pushes north. BTW, in case you weren’t aware, the peak temperature in July 2006 was 36.5C which in fact turned out to be the UK’s hottest July reading in recorded history.

Of course August 2003 produced the famous 38.5C at Brogdale, Kent, even warmer than 2006, so yes while warm, this is by no means the worst.

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No doubt global warming will get raised in coming days when all this is said and done but let me just say that every 6-8 years, we can expect this. It’s merely history repeating itself. There is nothing unusual about this nor is there anything unusual about witnessing 6 bad summers. We live in the UK, we live beside a big ocean which just so happens to be on of a main driver of our weather here. Our climate fluctuates when it’s temperature fluctuates. As we’re all aware, there are tranquil and turbulent times in our weather, a lot has to do with global sea surface temperatures and when Pacific is cold and Atlantic warm, like we have now, our weather can become a little more extreme or unusual. We saw this more active time back in the 1950s.

Source: Telegraph

Source: Telegraph

Following the endless sunshine of 1959, it took till the mid-70s before the UK had another hot, dry summer, so while the past 6 years may have been tough, it could be worse, just like this heat could be far worse.

So, those thinking we’re in the midst of another summer like 1976, think again and go look at the facts. This is not a patch on July 2006 never mind 1976 when there was severe drought crippling the country. Mentioning 76 is hype, ignorance to reality and a wish for the extreme just like we saw with recent winters. At least here, you’ll get the facts and the fact right now is that this heat breaks as early as Monday-Tuesday next week.

As expected, the ECMWF has joined the GFS in a breakdown scenario next week with waves of energy lifting north into the UK. Heavy thunderstorms with an increased risk of localised flooding is very much on the cards. The thunderstorms could be some of the more spectacular we’ve seen in several years as there will be a lot of heat around still. This ‘breakdown’ looks very ‘thundery’ as it comes from a ‘warm source region’ and not from the northwest and so expect plenty of warm but more importantly HUMID AIR too.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface charts showing a thundery breakdown early next week.

Mon 132 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Tue 144 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Tue 162 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the GFS.

Tue 156 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Thu 192 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The end is near to this near uninterrupted warm, settled pattern. Does it mean an end altogether in the warmth? No, next week still looks to have plenty of heat but the emphasis into next week looks to turn very much of heat and plenty of energy lifting north along with increased humidity which will spark off big thunderstorms. In other words we loose are settled setup and turn very unstable.

As for further down the road, including August, I do think there is still be plenty of warmth in our pattern throughout the rest of July and even through August but with a change in the hemispheric pattern and of course a very different SST profile into August, one must wonder whether all that warmer than normal water surrounding us will help fuel big rains. Could we go from a hot, dry July to a warm but very wet (at times) August? That’s what I’m beginning to wonder as we saw back in July 2006.

Still Going For 30C In Scotland & Possibly Northern Ireland This Weekend!

I still think we could get to 30C somewhere in Northern Ireland and Scotland Saturday or Sunday. Keeping a close eye on this..

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart this weekend into early next week. As you can see the air mass is still plenty warm with all seeing low to even mid-20s, perhaps starting off in the mid to upper 20s across Northern Ireland, Scotland and the North of England.

Fri 19








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  1. calum says:

    No Fair. Scotlands been on “pause” for 6 Days!

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