London To Peak At 33-34°C Wednesday While Scotland May Hit 30-31°C This Weekend!

Written by on July 16, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Once the figures come in, today will likely wind up as the UK’s warmest day of the year, beating the 31.4C recorded at Heathrow back over the weekend. While that’s hot, tomorrow may be even hotter with the ridge strengthening that bit further. I’m looking for 33 or even 34C around London after a night which struggles to get below 21C. That figures plays an important role in setting a firm base for maximum peak heating through the midday and 3pm hour providing storms don’t pop and nearby outflow boundaries don’t thwart the heating process. After tomorrow, expect gradual cooling across the South.

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It’s all thanks to the powerful ridge migrating back north which presents a trim of temperatures particularly in the East and Southeast. The stationary boundary hanging over the North Highlands lifts north over the next 48 hours, and again we here in Scotland are blessed with abundant, strong sunshine. Conditions appear perfect this weekend for what could be a rare HOT day over Scotland. In other words we may not have seen the warmest weather of this season yet.

As for that cooling over England, northeast winds blowing off the North Sea as well as reduced heights and mid-level temperatures will bring down those surface temperatures particularly east of the Pennines including London as cooler sea air blows up the Thames Estuary. However, this is no major cool down but a return to somewhat more comfortable conditions.

West and Northwest parts of England and Wales will remain hot but the core of heat shall be positioned back up across Northern Ireland but this time focused over Scotland.

Take a look at this chart, wow!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s a closer look!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Not often you see a 588dc ridge centred directly over Fife!

Not much difference with the GFS 500mb..

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Given the 588 core, 850 temps, little to no wind and dry ground, I expect to see highs push 30C in several Central and inland Eastern towns and cities. It would not surprise me if somewhere reaches 31C over the Lothian’s, Borders or Fife either Saturday or Sunday afternoon.

Note the lack of cloud shown by the ECMWF for Saturday PM.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The sunshine and heat will last throughout the weekend and likely through much, if not possibly all of next week but the GFS is suggesting turbulent times starting as early as next Monday while the ECMWF keeps the warm, settled theme going much longer..

Many haven’t seen a drop of rain for 10 or more days and if the ECMWF has it’s way, many could find the next 7 to 10 days equally as dry.

The GFS is hinting at heavy shower and thunderstorm activity across southern parts of Ireland, England and Wales Monday and Tuesday while points further north remain warm and sunny. It’s also hinting much stormier conditions mid to late next week. A lot of energy pushing into a hot, humid air mass could produce some wild thunderstorms along with flash flooding but I would seriously not buy into this too much but keep it in mind as not only is the ECMWF showing nothing but it’s nearly 10 days out.

Here’s the GFS with it’s potential breakdown scenario.

Tues 174 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Fri 240 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sat 276 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The ECMWF shows nothing but strong surface and upper level high pressure, no rain and nothing but strong, hot sunshine. In fact Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland could see highs pushing 28C widely all the way from Saturday right through to next Wednesday.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart for Monday, Wednesday and Friday.. Very different to the GFS. Note pressure close holding at around 1028mb day by day.

Mon 144 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wed 192 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Fri 240 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Go all the way out to the end of the day 10 period and NOTHING! So, what do you believe at it stands? The GFS with it’s breakdown through next week or the ECMWF which continues the hot, dry, settled weather going for another solid week. Right right my money would be on the ECMWF but late next week may begin to show hints of a breakdown but nowhere near as fast as the GFS. The ECMWF is the more reliable model which is seeing the increasingly dry ground over the UK and keeping heights abnormally strong.

Struggling with this relentless heat?

Here’s some useful info from the Met Office.

Source: Met Office

Source: Met Office

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