Scotland & Northern Ireland To Push 30°C This Weekend, Hints Of Change Late Month?

Written by on July 15, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Over the next 48 hours, the strong and dominant ridge bringing all the heat to much of the UK and Ireland has backed far enough to the SW to allow weak fronts to brush northern Scotland and hold all the heat over England, Wales and much of Midland and southern Ireland. Light and patchy rain, increased breeze and cooler temps have temporarily cut the heat over Scotland but by no means is the heat over.

Rain should push into the Glasgow-Edinburgh corridor later today into Tuesday but eastern areas should stay largely dry thanks to shelter from the hills.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

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Further south and it’s nonstop sunshine and lots of heat and humidity. Highs day by day will climb to between 22-25C from Newcastle to Manchester, 26-29C from Birmingham to Cardiff across to London with areas topping 30 to 32C, particularly by Wednesday. Night time minimums will hold at around 18-21C in the major towns and cities.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

Northern Ireland and the northern Republic stay warm over the next couple of days with just a slight increase in cloud over Northern Ireland and it is a good deal cooler compared to last week but by Wednesday into Thursday and Friday, heights begin rebuilding north. The disturbances riding the northern periphery of the ridge will get forced well to the north and sunshine and heat returns to Northern Ireland and Scotland. By Friday expect temperatures to once again reach the very warm 24-27C range with nights becoming very mild once again.

By appears to see an increased chance of thunderstorms across Ireland and southern Scotland with high CAPE values.

Check out the below surface and CAPE chart for Friday afternoon. These storms could be locally strong, packing gusty winds and flooding rains but these pop in a very warm air mass with surrounding areas likely climbing into the mid and upper 20s.

GFS surface

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

CAPE

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Saturday the atmosphere becomes more CAPPED and so thunderstorm chances diminish as the core of high pressure parks directly overhead. Saturday and Sunday look right now to be the hottest days and may well be the hottest of the entire year so far. The highest temps so far is 29.9C in NI and 28.4C in Scotland. It could top those values this weekend.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

The core of the ridge repositions back up towards Northern Ireland and so expect the highest readings to return to more northern areas while in the South, they trim back with a light NE flow drawing mist and low cloud back onto North Sea coasts again but the cooling over eastern England is only by a few degrees. Say from the midweek peak of 32C around London to nearer 28C Friday.

It would not surprise me if by the weekend, Scotland and Northern Ireland match the temperatures they’ve seen so far, it could even go a touch higher. Remember how dry it’s become and that ridge sure looks strong with warm 850 temps this weekend. The 30.8C Northern Ireland record may still not be safe while it could get within 2C of Scotland’s all-time record of 32.9C.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

For those hating this hot, dry pattern, I am keeping an eye on the models and while there’s no relief in the next 10 days, by the end of the 10 day period, a fairly major trough appears to drop south, not that far to the west of Ireland.

Both GFS & ECMWF Suggests Wind & Rain Return To UK and Ireland Around The 25/26th

Both ECMWF and GFS are showing rain and a breakdown of the ridge around the 25th with one low followed by another 24 to 36 hours later which spread rain and wind right across the UK and Ireland. I can’t show you the ECM Control but take a look at the GFS by 240 hrs of Thursday 25th

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here comes the next system by Sunday 28th.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The more reliable ECMWF Control also has a breakdown with a low swinging an arm of moderate to heavy rain right across the UK and Ireland. While the GFS holds onto the trough and more unsettled theme beyond the 25th, there is a question as to whether the ECMWF will have another ridge build on the backside of the front.

It’s a big if at this stage but if these models are correct, it’s going to be interesting to see what follows, whether we hold onto the unsettled and it’s the beginning of the end to what has become a toasty July or whether it’s another blip.

Still some 12 days out of course and we’ve a lot more heat to contend  with until then.

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