UK Outlook: Warm, Dry Pattern’s Become Hard To Break Once Established

Written by on July 12, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Good morning to you all. We’re back to Friday and it’s nearly another weekend and boy what a weekend it’s going to be from Carlisle on southwards. We may scrape a 30C today over sheltered northern parts of England but if it doesn’t get there today, it should tomorrow somewhere within the Greater London area and down towards Gravesend. Speaking of the Southeast, enjoy the comfortable conditions today, your going to add on 8C tomorrow from today’s values while there will be a decrease of that in the North.

A weakening frontal boundary heralds cooling relief to Northern Ireland and Scotland through tonight but that change is a 4-6C drop in temperatures and cloudier conditions Hardly a real snap in this warmth. While nice for many, unfortunately there will be NO rain with this front away from far northern Scotland.

The southward progression of the front means we see the core of the heat transfer and get squeezed into the South. Hottest today is in the North with 24-27, locally 29C but tomorrow it’ll be in the South.

Here’s the latest upper chart showing today vs tomorrow.

Today

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_0

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Saturday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_24

So, highs tomorrow, 19-22C for Scotland and Northern Ireland, 24-26C from Carlisle to Manchester and Leeds and the core of hottest air, rather than be over NI and Scotland will be over the South Midlands and Southeast where widely we shall see 27-29, locally 30-31C. Wales will see 25-28C widely. Always cooler at the coast with a refreshing onshore breeze.

As I mention, there little rain to speak of even in the North. However, there will be an increased shower or thunderstorm risk starting today over the Southern Uplands and North Pennines and tomorrow over the Midlands, South and parts of Wales thanks to the heat and increased humidity.

Rain chances are so slight that it’s not worth showing you the chart for tomorrow.

As for Saturday, the GFS shows rain in the form of storms, highly localised and could present local flooding.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Sunday it’s cooler for all with a 1-3C drop over the North and a 2-3C drop in the South. While pleasantly comfortable across Northern Ireland and Scotland at 18-20C with a mix of sun and cloud, it’s still very warm but not just as hot from Birmingham to Cardiff across to London with 24-27C. No real relief. The North of England holds in the low 20s.

The newer model runs show less of a dip in the upper pattern into the start of next week so there’s less cooling and lesser rain chances. Originally I thought there may be a brief dip which presents a few days of much cooler conditions (nearer normal) but it looks like temperatures will hold up with near 21C in the North, 25+C in the South Monday through Wednesday.

Both GFS and ECMWF are hinting at mid next week as the best chance of seeing some rain but I remain pessimistic about this given the strength of heights and lack of any real trough. Heights shall stand strong and despite a flattening of the ridge, it never gets kicked out allowing much cooler air in and indeed rain bearing fronts.

Here’s the GFS surface chart for next Wednesday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Doesn’t look like there much moisture to work with.

The ECMWF suggests some better rain chances for the Northwest Highlands, perhaps extending towards the Central Lowlands but has nothing further south.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Interestingly the late Tuesday-Wednesday period appears to be the ONLY real (system) rain chance UK and even Ireland-wide through the next 10 days.

Here’s the latest ECMWF total precip chart for the next 7 days. Notice the concentration of appreciable rain is north of the Central Lowlands, largely captured by the Northwest Highlands with far less to the lee of the mountains. Notice Wales has barely a drop along with the Northwest, west Midlands, south-central and Southwest England. The heavier rain over the Pennines would be heat induced showers and storms. Also worth noting, the lightest shade of green, which covers a large area, is less than 0.01 inches, so this area can be taken with a pinch of salt. Many won’t see a drop over the next week.

Little rain for Ireland too with each day staying in the 19-24C range. Not particularly ‘cool’ and it heats up perhaps as early as Wednesday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Another Hot Spell Looms Late Next Week Into The Weekend!

As we enter the second half of next week, it’s looks like we may be in for another significant warm up once again.

Check out the model run for next Thursday through Saturday!

Thu

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Fri

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

Sat

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

We could be back to the ‘hot conditions; once again with mid-20s again widely for Northern Ireland, Scotland while 26-29C across England and Wales.

Ireland will likewise rise back into the mid-20s.

Here’s the GFS surface chart for Thursday and Friday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Friday

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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