Expert Analysis: Will This Hot, Dry Pattern Continue? A Look At The Remainder Of July Into August!

Written by on July 10, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

While today was somewhat cooler, especially in eastern parts of Britain, thanks to a cold front drawing cooler, more refreshing air in off the North Sea. This in fact brought light drizzle to some parts stretching from Aberdeenshire down to Lincolnshire where temperatures in spots were down a solid 10C from yesterday. For western areas, a mix of sun and cloud with 27 or 28C where skies were sunniest.

Through tonight and while cooler, less humid air spreads across Central and Southern parts, allowing the temperature to drop to more comfortable sleeping levels, humidity is on the rise across Northern Ireland and Scotland and so temperature may increase overnight, setting the scene for tomorrow.

Note the cooler 5,000ft temps in central and southern parts while they’re warmer across the north in tomorrow’s ECMWF chart.


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While Thursday is cooler and fresher across southern England and Wales in particular compared with today’s 25-28C, it’s a warmer day across northern England and eastern Scotland tomorrow with widespread values of 25-26C. Perhaps a touch up on today for western Scotland and Northern Ireland with more sunshine on offer, feeling more humid, so it could feel uncomfortable if your out and about during the afternoon.

A hotter day for Central and Southern areas Friday with widespread highs soaring to between 25 and 28, locally 20C. Staying much the same for the North and Northwest.

Here’s the chart for Friday and notice the warmer 5,000ft temps covering central and southern areas as the ridge builds south again, allowing greater depth of sinking and warmer surface readings. It could approach 30C as early as Friday in the South.


With a cold front edging closer to the North Coast of Scotland Friday, we should see some slight cooling in the mid levels of the atmosphere which could break the ‘cap’, allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop, during the warm to hot mid and late afternoon hours. This should be a high ground feature and will be isolated.

While Saturday remains warm to hot across central and southern areas, the air freshens across Northern Ireland and Scotland as a cold front drops south bringing rain and much fresher air. The presence of the cold front and cooling in the mid and upper levels over England could spark showers and storms from Cumbria down as far as the Midlands while it’s more sunshine and heat across the South.

Here’s the chart for Saturday and you can clearly see the cooler air dropping into the North.


Here it comes on the ECMWF surface chart out at 78 hours (Saturday). I know this will be welcome by many who aren’t a fan out of the warm weather or those wanting to see some moisture back in the grass and soil.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The front significantly weakens Sunday and although it does turn fresher across most of the UK, it remains warm in the far South at near 27C around London but the noteworthy aspect is the fact there is literally no rain with this. It peters out by the time in gets into England. Even for Scotland where you can expect some rain, it’s not going to provide much of a soaking and will be in and out, followed by more sunshine, albeit much cooler sunshine up in this part of the world.

Note heights and 850s rise slightly with more ridging.

As for Monday into Tuesday, the model is suggesting a more substantial rain edging south over Scotland which is well by many I’m sure. This rain which should dampen the ground well should extend into northern England and Wales but this appears to be another weakening feature as it drops into an area of resistance with stronger, more suppressive upper heights. Warmth will linger into Monday from Birmingham to London while the cool, fresher feel continues across Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and Wales.

Here’s the surface chart by early Tuesday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Wednesday, the model pushes rain into central and southern areas finally. This could be the first rain for the Midlands down towards London.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the troughiness, finally driving cooler air all the way to the South.


It’s a slow cooling down process starting this weekend and looks like it may take till Wednesday before some cooler, damper air reaches the South with highs possibly restricted to just 21 or 22C. However, do I think this cool down will be substantial with a much wetter pattern eventually returning? No, I think the dry soils will now do it’s dirty work through the rest of July with a struggle to get rain into the South and even across more northern areas, rain is not going to be plentiful. Gardeners beware, rain is less and few and far between this month and especially the further south you go.

Take a look at the upper chart for next Saturday. Note the cooling, damp upper low pushing east of the UK with another substantial ridge building in on the backside. Once you get into a dry, warm pattern, it tends to linger with cool, wet conditions harder to come by. As I’ve continuously stated, lower pressure tends to head for areas where it’s wettest while higher pressure and warmth heads for where soils are driest.


Let’s glance back at the CFSv2 precip forecast for July.


Note the abnormally dry conditions it had for this month, seen way back in May. What I always struggled with was the fact it had this level of ‘drier than normal’ but had normal, even a touch below normal temperatures. I didn’t buy that at all. In July to have this level of dry, your going to see stronger heights with building warmth, exactly what we’re seeing.

So, what about the rest of July? Will this level of heat return?

While I think the rest of this month will see more warm sunshine with little true break downs and return to a wet, cool pattern, one cannot rule out more heat late in the month with more comfortable conditions over the next 10 days but given the pattern, the dry ground, one cannot rule out another spell like hat we have now, perhaps late this month extending into early August.

As for August, well I think we’ll see a cooling trend as well as a return to wetter conditions from the 2nd week onwards. Remember that waters are heating up with this current heat and so if we eventually snap this pattern and say flip back to a more active pattern, rainfall could become substantial during the later stages of this summer. These are initial thoughts and not really a forecast as such. Will have a better idea next week I think and will provide you with more of a ‘forecast’.

Here’s the latest CFSv2 precip chart for this month. Note it’s looking even drier as it picks up on just how dry it is and will continue to be over the next 2-3 weeks. Dry equals warmer than normal remember!


Amazingly, it still has normal temperatures for this month. I think not given the warmth we’ve seen and with the abnormally dry conditions continuing, how the heck is this not seeing this as being a significantly ABOVE average month.


I do agree with the precip forecast for August. Though nothing major, it’s showing slightly above normal precip and I think a change is large-scale pattern and an increase in water temperatures, helped greatly by our warm, stable pattern will help bring a good soaking next month.


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