Chantal Could Aggravate Soaked Southeast, Plains Heat To Spread East, Glance At August!

Written by on July 10, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It was once a relatively healthy 60 mph tropical storm but Chantal, now a mere open wave floating across the eastern Caribbean has all but lost the fight. Chantal succumbed to her increasingly dry, dusty and inhospitable environment with a forward speed a little too fast. The system, though far less of a threat, needs to be closely watched though.

While the feature could completely disappear, one must think of it as a seed and if that seeds gets through the islands, across the mid-80 degree waters between Hispaniola and the Bahamas with an overall favourable environment, then there’s no reason this could not re-develop, therefore threatening the Southeast with not just rain but wind and surge.

The main threat will be enhanced rainfall this weekend into next week no matter whether this develops or not. Given the amount of water in the ground from southern Alabama to southern Virginia, this could be a problem in itself, taking out wind altogether.

The trouble is, a strong ridge will build over the Ohio Valley and Northeast this weekend and with the remnants of Chantal lifting north, we could see quite substantial ADDITONAL rains in an area which doesn’t need any more. Especially if it takes aim at Alabama and the Florida Panhandle where it’s been particularly wet over the past 2 weeks. This could be nothing if there’s nothing to come north but if this survives and there’s at least energy and tropical moisture pushing into the Southeast with a strong block to the north, this could be a problem.

The ECMWF suggests a decent amount of rain for the Southeast up into the Mid-Atlantic through the next 168 hours which takes us to next Wednesday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

100s Extend From Dallas to Pierre, SD

As for the heat, well you know it’s on big time from Texas all the way up to North Dakota with the first sustained spell of 100s for Dallas, Oklahoma City and Wichita. That powerful ridge responsible looks to stay put for at least the next 5-7 days, extending some real summer heat up into Chicago and Indianapolis too, FINALLY! In fact, Chicagoans may have several days in the 90s starting this weekend after what has been a cool summer so far with very few 90s. Complete flip from last years blowtorch.

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Dallas and Oklahoma City both hit 100 yesterday and this may be the first of 5 or more straight 100s with overnight lows not getting below 80 in the Big D.

Look out Northeast residents as the NICE high presenting low humidity and beautifully sunny days late this week will, as it dives S & E, draw the hot air over the Plains up into the Big Cities, raising humidity as well as temperature once again late this weekend on into next week.

Check out the GFS by Sunday! It’s trying to push the heat northeast from the Central Plains towards the DC to Boston corridor.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s next Wednesday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Heavy rains will continue over the Southeast up into the coastal Mid-Atlantic while the ridge builds over top from Texas to New England.

As for the ECMWF, it too is looking hot initially in the Plains but this spreads ENE through the next 7 days.

Sunday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_96

Tuesday

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144

As for the CFSv2 looking further down the road, I strongly disagree with it’s initial 7 day temperatures for Texas, it’s plainly obvious that Texas is NOT going to be below normal. Yes, it’s seeing the heat spread from the southern plains up into the Great Lakes and Northeast with the cool underneath (over the Southeast) which you can’t argue with. Interestingly it’s showing below normal over New Mexico and Arizona. Now why would I agree with that? Because models are showing moisture pour into the Southwest from the Gulf and Mexico. Remember there’s a lot of east to west transport of moisture over the Gulf and that’s heading for the Deserts but, like the GFS, it’s temperatures for Texas is way off, forecasting cool but it’s clearly not.

Here’s week 1-2

wk1_wk2_20130709_NAsfcT

Note the heat eases over the Midwest week 2.

Now, interestingly, the model is picking up on a substantial cool look week 3 and 4 which is interesting and can’t help but agree with.

Week 3-4

wk3_wk4_20130709_NAsfcT

I have a tendency to agree with a much cooler look to the end of July start of August across a large swath of the US, say from the Rockies east.

As for it’s August forecast. This I do agree with given the evolution of the pattern as we head towards the 2nd half of the season.

usT2mMonInd2

Check out the amount of rain it’s projecting across a large chunk of the country, particularly the already soaked Northern Tier and waterlogged Southeast. Feedback. Lots of rain equals more rain and cooler temps! Where it’s dry, Texas to Southern California up to Washington, it stays dry!

usPrecMonInd2

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