Will Tropical Storm Chantal Impact The US? String Of 100s For Dallas

We are keeping a close eye on 60 mph Tropical Storm Chantal which is moving fairly quickly in a WNW direction over the Western Atlantic. Chantal is modestly organised at this time and could be considered a fairly strong tropical system with an increasingly well defined low level circulation as you can see from the below satellite image.

There is a sea of dry air to it’s NE while strong shear is in front thanks to an upper low positioned near the Bahamas. That upper low will and is inhibiting intensification and is in fact exposing the N and W side of the circulation thanks to strong SW winds. However, despite the somewhat inhospitable environment, the system is heading towards Hispaniola and does a small chance at becoming a minimal hurricane by the time it reaches this large and lofty island within 48 hours. This poor and vulnerable island made up of Haiti and the Dominican Rep could endure weak hurricane-force winds (74+mph) along with 3-6 inches of rain widely, locally 8-10 by Thursday as it crosses.

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

This island, home to mountains towering over 14,000ft above sea level will disrupt the circulation, it may even destroy it. This large land mass has torn many a tropical storm or hurricane but it remains open to question, exactly how much impact the island will have. Stronger storms tend to see bigger negative impacts while smaller, weaker systems tend to fare better, coming out the other side and regrouping quick but time will tell. If it weakens minimally, then Chantal, as it heads towards the Bahamas and eventually the US this weekend into early next week, could pose more of a problem.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Some modelling suggests the atmospheric environment Chantal enters late this week between Hispaniola and the Bahamas remains unfavourable, therefore suppressing further potential intensification but that’s some 5 days away and exact track and movement and intensity of the surrounding weather pattern remains unclear. What is clear though is that water temperatures are plenty warm and in the mid-80s over the Bahamas and off the US South Atlantic coast and so, if it so happens that Chantal remains fairly well organised and atmospheric conditions are less hostile than models are thinking just now, well the US may want to watch this rather closely.

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

I have frequently referred to this summer’s pattern as similar to 2005. In 2005, after the major Western heat wave (like we just saw this year), we had powerful Hurricane Dennis slam ashore on the Alabama/Florida Panhandle coast with 120 mph winds. I’m not saying that we have a Dennis heading for Florida or the Carolinas but I am merely pointing out all the possibilities at this early stage.

Here’s the latest forecasted track from the NHC.

Source: NHC

Source: NHC

The trouble is the GFS is showing another, potentially stronger system pushing through the Lesser Antilles within 10-15 days and while Chantal may be nothing or something for the US, we’re entering an increasingly favourable MJO where development is becoming more plentiful. Lots of things to watch in the tropics in coming days and weeks that’s for sure.

Heat Weakens In Northeast, Strengthens Over West And Plains

While the heat eases some in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the later stages of this week after a front clears Thursday and a cool, dry, Canadian high builds down, the heat is simply building once again from the Great Basin east into the Plains.

It looks like the hottest spell of weather this year is on the way to Dallas, Oklahoma City and Wichita while 100s return to Salt Lake City and Boise for the next few days. But as for the Big D, we’ll see possibly 4 or 5 days in a row of 100+. While hot, it’s nothing unusual or particularly noteworthy for July, especially after recent years but nonetheless, real summer heat is on the way and could linger well into the upcoming weekend. Houston too may get to, or close to 100 for a few days as the ridge builds to the north and draws drier air down. Houston tends to heat into the 100s when you’ve got a ridge building to the north/northwest which produces a dry, hot northerly flow. Drier air of course heats easier than humid air.

Here’s the ECMWF for the next 7-10 days.

Tue 9


Thu 11


Sat 13


Mon 15


Wed 17


While it’s been a far cooler summer in Minneapolis and Chicago compared to last year, it looks like we’re going to see some 90s return. With system riding across the northern periphery of the big ridge centred over the Plains, Minneapolis could remain fairly stormy with damaging winds, hail, flooding rain but there could also be hot days too. Chicago has seen few 90s compared to the seemingly nonstop 90s of last summer but here too looks to see a few coming up over the next 5-7 days.

Looking out to late next week, the ECM shows hot, humid air pushing back into the Northeast. Something worth noting while there’s no heatwave on the horizon for the Southeast. Wet soils playing a significant role on heights and temperature.

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.

Tags: , , , ,

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply