It was a very warm day by Northern Irish and Scottish standards yesterday with high twenties recorded at both Glasgow and Castlederg, Tyrone yesterday. That reading of 29.5C in Castlederg was in fact just 1.3C away from the all-time record for the country and so that was a very impressive reading indeed.

With a balmy start to the day and 21C likely to already be back on the map in several spots as of 9am and the air mass warmer than it has been, we could conceivably get to 29C in Scotland and in Northern Ireland again while 30C is possible somewhere.

It was very warm elsewhere but not quite as warm than of late for both England and Wales. Why has it been warmer in the North and West? Well the core of the upper ridge, the area of maximum sinking has in fact been over the North and West, therefore explaining why it’s been hottest here and should be once again today.

Here’s the upper level and surface chart for today.

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Surface

Notice the position of both surface and upper level ridge, their slowly creeping NW and that is key to a slight cool down midweek as a front will run down the eastern side of the UK. That will essentially allow clouds to push in from the east, slicing temps from mid and upper 20s to low 20s, hardly a real cool down and thankfully we won’t see a real break but more a breather from the really warm stuff. Little to no rain will come from this and in fact, while air temps cool by 3-5C, humidity could rise and therefore the air mass may feel just as warm.

By Wednesday the upper chart doesn’t really reflect the surface as the front will be over the east but already rebuilding over top and so once the heights rebuild at the surface, temperature Thursday and Friday return to current levels with near wall to wall hazy, hot sunshine returning for all.

Surface at 48 hours.

Nice strong upper ridge firmly in place overhead with just as warm 5,000ft temps as we have now. We could once again see Northern Ireland and Scotland push 30C once again, either Thursday or Friday.

Check out that surface chart. Band slap over Ireland and the UK.

While Friday looks much the same as Thursday, notice the change and the dip appearing to our north. That’s the first sign of change which arrives this weekend.

As you can see the surface chart doesn’t look just as nice with an increase in rain appearing to the north. It’s still too early to call just yet but that’s heading south along with low pressure. How much impact this has by Saturday remains to be seen. If any, it would be over Scotland. Literally no change comes to England and Wales Saturday or Sunday from what I can see.

During Saturday, notice the ECMWF shows height falls and cooling at 850. This cooling with still strong surface warming may suggest an increase and shower or even thunderstorm activity this weekend.

The real change appears to come Monday as a low swings a front through, knocking down heights across the board. The later stage of the upcoming weekend, appears to show the end of our ‘heatwave’ and a return to somewhat more normal conditions for the UK and Ireland.

Check out the surface chart for next Monday.

A much cooler look in the upper chart for next Tuesday!

Next week overall is looking quite different to this week with much more unsettled conditions and nearer average temps once again.

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Tags: heatwave 2013, Ireland heatwave, UK heatwave, UK Heatwave 2013